考虑用户需求响应的售电公司购售电决策研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 10:14

本文选题：售电公司 + 购电决策　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着2015年“电改9号文”的下发,正式启动了我国售电侧市场改革,大量售电公司在全国各地迅速成立。作为售电侧市场的新型市场主体,售电公司具有代理用户从多个电力交易市场上购售电的优势,因此如何合理的规划购电比例及售电方案成为其运营的核心问题。此外,针对不断增强的用户需求响应意识和激励信息,用户能够主动调整其用电方式配合市场运营,从而降低自身的用电花销,新的市场规则赋予了用户直接参与市场交易的权利,用户的用电行为将直接影响售电公司的购售电决策。针对这一新的需求,本文首先对售电公司在多个购电及售电市场面临的不确定性进行了分析和建模,为售电公司的购售电决策建立了模型基础。随后参照新的市场规则,为售电公司设计了购电与售电统一的购售电模型,并将用户的用电行为联动考虑,建立了考虑用户需求响应的售电公司购售电决策双层模型,上层模型以售电公司利润最大化为目标,下层模型以用户用电效用最大化为目标。综合考虑了双边合同违约惩罚机制,对具有需求响应能力的用户用电负荷进行建模,采取了售电公司代理用户需求响应资源参与实时市场的互动机制。此外,由于售电公司购售电决策中面临的风险将直接影响售电公司的决策,因此针对售电公司在进行购售电决策时不同市场带来的风险,引入金融领域常用的风险评估方法——条件风险价值(CVaR),并结合风险偏好系数,建立了售电公司购售电效用决策模型,更准确地反映了售电公司在进行购售电决策中的行为选择。最后,为验证所提出的考虑用户需求响应的购售电决策模型和购售电效用决策模型,选用美国PJM市场一周的数据对模型进行了验证。结果表明考虑用户需求响应能够给出更优的售电公司购电决策方案,且考虑风险的效用模型能更准确地反映售电公司在进行购售电决策时的风险偏好程度及决策行为。论文研究工作瞄准了售电市场改革新需求,为新的市场环境下售电公司的购售电决策提供了方法指导。
[Abstract]:With the launch of "Power Reform 9" in 2015, the reform of China's power sale market has been officially launched, and a large number of power sale companies have been set up rapidly throughout the country. As a new type of market subject in the power sale market, the power sale company has the advantage of purchasing and selling electricity from multiple electricity trading markets. Therefore, how to plan the proportion of electricity purchase and the scheme of electricity sale becomes the core problem in its operation. In addition, in response to the increasing awareness of user demand response and incentive information, users can actively adjust their electricity use mode to match the market operation, thereby reducing their own consumption. The new market rules give users the right to participate in market transactions directly. In view of this new demand, this paper first analyzes and models the uncertainty faced by the power sale companies in many power purchasing and selling markets, and establishes the model foundation for the purchasing and selling decisions of the power sale companies. Then, referring to the new market rules, a unified model of purchasing and selling electricity is designed for the power sale company. Considering the user's electricity consumption behavior, a two-layer model of purchasing and selling decision is established, which takes into account the response of the user's demand. The upper model aims at maximizing the profit of the power sale company, and the lower model aims at maximizing the utility of the consumers. Taking into account the penalty mechanism of bilateral contract breach, the model of customer power load with demand response ability is built, and the interactive mechanism of acting user demand response resource to participate in real-time market is adopted. In addition, because the risks faced by the power sale companies in their purchasing and selling decisions will directly affect the decisions of the power sale companies, the risks arising from different markets when the power sale companies make the purchase and sale decisions are addressed. This paper introduces the risk assessment method commonly used in financial field, conditional risk value (RV), and combines with risk preference coefficient, establishes the utility decision model of power purchase and sale for power sale companies, which reflects more accurately the behavior choice of power sale companies in the decision-making of purchasing and selling electricity. Finally, in order to verify the proposed decision model of purchasing and selling electricity and the utility decision model of purchasing and selling electricity taking into account the response of user demand, the model is verified by the one-week data of American PJM market. The results show that considering the customer demand response, a more optimal power purchase decision scheme can be obtained, and the utility model considering the risk can more accurately reflect the degree of risk preference and decision behavior of the power sale company. This paper aims at the new demand of the electricity market reform, and provides the method guidance for the purchasing and selling decision of the power sale company under the new market environment.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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