面向智能电网的配电变压器重过载影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-20 18:18

本文选题：智能电网 + 配电变压器　；参考：《电网技术》2017年01期

【摘要】：根据配变的历史负荷信息、天气信息、用电客户信息等相关资料,统计分析了配变重过载的主要影响因素。首先根据互信息概念及对策理论算法计算所有特征变量对配变重过载情况发生的相对重要性,然后使用贝叶斯和全概率公式计算配变重过载概率与特征变量之间的关系,最后根据重过载概率与特征变量间的关系对配变进行编码分类。分析结果表明:配变重过载主要因素为行业类别、用电类别、日平均温度及月平均温度;配变重过载多发生于采矿、制造等生产行业,乡村重过载率要高于城镇重过载率;大部分配变重过载发生于温度较高和较低时,少量的配变重过载发生在温度适宜时。配变月重过载天数与配变分类情况相吻合。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical load information, weather information and customer information of distribution transformer, the main influencing factors of heavy overload of distribution transformer are statistically analyzed. Based on the mutual information concept and game theory algorithm, the relative importance of all characteristic variables to distribution overloading is calculated, and then the relationship between distribution overloading probability and feature variables is calculated by using Bayesian and full probability formulas. Finally, according to the relationship between overloading probability and characteristic variables, the coding classification of distribution transformer is carried out. The results show that the main factors of heavy overload are industry category, power category, daily average temperature and monthly average temperature, and the overloading rate of rural areas is higher than that of urban heavy overload in mining, manufacturing and other production industries. Most of the weight distribution overload occurred at higher and lower temperature, while a small number of variable weight overload occurred at the appropriate temperature. The number of days of monthly overload of distribution transformer coincides with the classification of distribution transformer.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学电子信息工程学院;中国电力科学研究院;国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2015AA050204) 国家电网公司科技项目资助(XX71-14-036)~~
【分类号】：TM421

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