基于优选带宽核密度估计的谐波概率潮流分析方法

发布时间：2018-06-25 08:06

本文选题：核密度估计 + 蒙特卡罗法　；参考：《电力自动化设备》2017年08期

【摘要】：为解决蒙特卡罗法的计算效率问题,提出小规模样本仿真与非参数概率密度估计法相结合的谐波概率潮流分析方法。在对核密度函数的带宽选择进行优选设计的基础上,利用核密度估计法对小样本仿真得到的谐波潮流结果集进行概率密度估计,得到受影响电网节点的谐波含量的概率分布。利用Open DSS配电网仿真工具对IEEE 13节点标准配电系统进行仿真实验,通过与蒙特卡罗法进行对比,验证了核密度估计方法的有效性和计算效率;与其他2种带宽选择方法的对比实验表明,所提带宽选择方法具备更好的带宽自适应性,且估计性能更优。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the computational efficiency of Monte Carlo method, a harmonic probabilistic power flow analysis method combining small scale sample simulation and nonparametric probability density estimation is proposed. On the basis of the optimization design of bandwidth selection of kernel density function, the probability density of harmonic power flow result set obtained by small sample simulation is estimated by using kernel density estimation method, and the probability distribution of harmonic content of affected power network node is obtained. The simulation experiment of IEEE 13-bus standard distribution system is carried out by using Open DSS distribution network simulation tool. The validity and efficiency of the kernel density estimation method are verified by comparing with Monte Carlo method. Compared with other two bandwidth selection methods, the experimental results show that the proposed bandwidth selection method has better bandwidth adaptation and better estimation performance.
【作者单位】：全球能源互联网研究院;
【基金】：国家电网公司科技项目(SGRI-DL-71-15-008)~~
【分类号】：TM744

【参考文献】