基于加权半方差的含风电电力系统旋转备用效益研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 20:21

本文选题：电力系统 + 旋转备用效益　；参考：《电力自动化设备》2017年09期

【摘要】：在考虑系统旋转备用的容量成本和能量成本、因购买旋转备用而减少的停电损失,以及旋转备用效益的离散程度的基础上,引入风险偏好系数,并采用证券投资组合中的加权半方差度量风险。以期望旋转备用效益最大和风险最小为优化目标,建立基于加权半方差的含风电电力系统旋转备用效益-风险模型。采用蒙特卡洛模拟法模拟实际负荷功率偏差和风电出力预测偏差,并通过多目标纵横交叉算法求得期望旋转备用效益-风险有效前沿和日前旋转备用计划,以及风险偏好系数、可靠性水平、预测偏差、失负荷损失价格、旋转备用价格对期望旋转备用效益和风险的影响。算例验证了所提模型的合理性。
[Abstract]:Considering the capacity cost and energy cost of the system rotating reserve, the risk preference coefficient is introduced on the basis of the reduction of the loss of power outage and the discreteness of the benefit of rotating reserve, and the weighted semi variance in the portfolio is used to measure the risk. The optimization of the maximum benefit and the minimum risk of the rotation reserve is expected to be optimized. The goal is to establish a rotating reserve benefit risk model based on the weighted half variance. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the actual load power deviation and the prediction deviation of the wind power output, and the multi target longitudinal and transverse algorithm is used to obtain the expected rotating reserve benefit risk effective frontier and the day forward rotation reserve plan and the wind. The risk preference coefficient, the reliability level, the prediction deviation, the loss of the loss price, and the influence of the rotation reserve price on the expected rotating reserve benefit and risk. The calculation example verifies the rationality of the proposed model.
【作者单位】：福州大学电气工程与自动化学院;
【基金】：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2013J01176)~~
【分类号】：TM614;TM73

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