基于改进灰色关联度的电力负荷影响因素量化分析模型

发布时间：2018-07-12 18:00

本文选题：改进灰色关联度 + 双向加权　；参考：《电网技术》2017年06期

【摘要】：当前我国电力负荷发展面临经济新常态,产业结构调整、节能减排等政策深入推进新形势。在此背景下,提出一种基于改进灰色关联度的电力负荷影响因素量化分析模型。首先,构建了宏观与微观相结合、层次化的负荷影响因素指标体系,系统地反映新形势下经济、政策等对负荷的影响;再次,针对传统灰色关联分析模型对历史数据的差异性和未来的电力发展形势考虑不足问题,通过对历史时期和因素指标分别加权,提出一种改进的灰色关联分析模型;最后,应用所提出的模型,对影响电力负荷的因素进行量化分析,所得结果相比于传统模型更加符合实际,同时依据所得结果对负荷预测等工作提出了建议。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of electric power load in our country is facing the new normal of economy, industrial structure adjustment, energy saving and emission reduction and so on. Under this background, a quantitative analysis model of power load influencing factors based on improved grey correlation degree is proposed. First of all, the paper constructs a hierarchical index system of factors affecting the load, which combines macro and micro, and systematically reflects the impact of economy and policy on the load under the new situation. Aiming at the lack of consideration of the difference of historical data and the future situation of electric power development in the traditional grey relational analysis model, an improved grey relational analysis model is put forward by weighted historical period and factor index respectively. Using the proposed model, the factors affecting the power load are quantitatively analyzed. The results are more practical than those of the traditional model, and some suggestions on load forecasting are put forward based on the results.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院;
【分类号】：TM714

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