基于灰色理论的配电监控与预警系统的研究

发布时间：2018-07-13 11:26

【摘要】：电力作为和民生息息相关的基础性资源,对于社会发展及人民的日常生活有极为重要的意义。电力系统的结构简单,安全性高,开放性提升,易于维护,费用降低,实时监控,更是在总线技术日渐成熟下自动化领域争相研究的热点。当今的配电房由于智能化水平有限和人员成本的限制,大多还是采用无人值守和事故抢修的方式,当发生了停电等事故时,用户联系供电部门或者运维单位来抢修,没有做到电力实时监控,超前预测,提前预警。由此可以看出,国家电网改造工程需要一个可靠性高,智能化,安全化的解决方案。本文在对国内外配电监控系统现状分析的情况下,提出了一种基于Profibus-DP总线技术下的配电监控的方案,可以实现对10kV配电房输入电流输出电压以及功率因数的实时变化预测和整个设备的控制。本监控系统分为三个层次,分别为设备层、通信层以及决策层。设备层位于下位机部分,实现相关数据的采集和具体设备的控制功能,其核心为STM32;决策层位于上位机部分,实现对相关量的发展趋势的预测功能,并根据预测结果作出判断、发布命令;通信层在两者之间,起到通信连接的作用。其次,本文基于目前的配电监控系统只有报警功能,创造性的利用灰色预测,在电力事故发生前做出预测,避免不必要的损失。利用灰色关联分析对历史状态信息进行关联分析,创建状态量关联序列,运用GM(1,1)建模方法对此关联序列进行建模,得到状态量关联预测序列以及关联预测值,通过创建目标函数并求解,最终得到状态预测值,当达到预警标准时,及时发出警报。较好地实现了10Kv配电房相关量的动态预警,同时也减少了因设备冗余而造成的损失。
[Abstract]:As a basic resource closely related to people's livelihood, electric power plays an important role in social development and people's daily life. The power system has the advantages of simple structure, high security, open upgrade, easy maintenance, low cost and real-time monitoring. It is a hot topic in the field of automation under the maturation of bus technology. Nowadays, due to the limited level of intelligence and the limitation of personnel cost, most power distribution houses still adopt the method of unattended and emergency repair. When power outages and other accidents occur, users contact the power supply departments or operation and maintenance units to rush repairs. Failed to achieve real-time power monitoring, ahead of the forecast, early warning. It can be seen that the State Grid Reconstruction Project needs a high reliability, intelligent and safe solution. Based on the analysis of the present situation of distribution monitoring system at home and abroad, this paper puts forward a scheme of distribution monitoring based on Profibus-DP bus technology. The real-time change prediction of input current and output voltage and power factor of 10 kV distribution room and the control of the whole equipment can be realized. The monitoring system is divided into three layers: device layer, communication layer and decision layer. The device layer is located in the lower part of the computer, which realizes the collection of relevant data and the control function of the specific equipment, the core of which is STM32, and the decision layer is located in the upper computer part, which realizes the function of predicting the development trend of the correlation quantity, and makes the judgment according to the forecast result. Issue commands; the communication layer acts as a communication connection between the two. Secondly, based on the current distribution monitoring system only alarm function, creative use of grey prediction, before the occurrence of electric power accidents to make predictions to avoid unnecessary losses. In this paper, the historical state information is analyzed by grey correlation analysis, and the correlation sequence of state quantity is created. The correlation sequence is modeled by GM (1K1) modeling method, and the correlation prediction sequence of state quantity and the correlation prediction value are obtained. By creating the objective function and solving, the state prediction value is finally obtained, and when the warning standard is reached, the alarm is issued in time. The dynamic early warning of the relative amount of 10kV power distribution house is realized well, and the loss caused by the redundancy of the equipment is also reduced.
【学位授予单位】：安徽理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM76;N941.5

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