基于Copula理论考虑风电相关性的源网协调规划

发布时间：2018-07-17 15:40

【摘要】：相邻风电场处于相似气象条件下,功率相关性较强。目前源网规划方法假设风电场功率间相互独立,忽略风电相关性对规划的影响,不适用于未来高比例可再生能源电力系统。文中主要提出了考虑风电相关性的源网规划方法,并探讨风电相关性对规划方案的影响。首先,基于Copula理论描述风电功率相关性,通过模糊C均值聚类法考虑风电不确定性,建立了概率风电功率模型。继而,提出考虑风电相关性的经济源网协调规划模型,采用遗传算法求解。通过Garver 6节点系统和巴西南部46节点系统算例分析不同系统规模下风电相关性对规划的影响。算例分析结果表明:风电相关性对局部规划方案影响显著,对全局影响较小,应避免建设连接有相关性较强的风电场接入点的输电线路,减少风电功率趋同变化的不利影响;经济性方面,投资费用增加,运行费用降低,对总费用影响不明显。
[Abstract]:The adjacent wind farm is in the similar meteorological condition, the power correlation is strong. The current source network planning method assumes that wind farm power is independent of each other, ignoring the impact of wind power correlation on the planning, and is not suitable for future high-proportion renewable energy power systems. In this paper, a method of source network planning considering wind power correlation is put forward, and the influence of wind power correlation on planning scheme is discussed. Firstly, based on Copula theory, the wind power correlation is described, and the probabilistic wind power model is established by considering the uncertainty of wind power through fuzzy C-means clustering method. Then, a coordinated planning model of economic source network considering wind power correlation is proposed and solved by genetic algorithm. Through the example of Garver 6-bus system and 46-bus system in southern Brazil, the influence of wind power correlation on the planning is analyzed under different scale of wind power system. The results show that the correlation of wind power has a significant impact on the local planning scheme and has little impact on the overall situation. Therefore, the construction of transmission lines connecting the access point of wind farm with strong correlation should be avoided, and the adverse effect of wind power converging change should be reduced. In the aspect of economy, the investment cost increases, the operating cost decreases, and the influence on the total cost is not obvious.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学电气工程学院;中国电力科学研究院;
【分类号】：TM614

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