ZW市负荷预测及配网规划方案的多目标群决策研究

发布时间：2018-08-14 14:35

【摘要】：城市配电网之所以能够成为电力系统中举足轻重的构成部分,不仅因为能够对资源的合理配置起到不可或缺的作用,同时对于保障当地供电质量和促进当地经济发展也起到了极大的促进作用,因此合理、科学、完善的配电网规划就显得尤为重要。随着经济的快速发展,原有的配电网建设远远跟不上这种发展速度,在一定的程度上甚至制约了电力系统的发展,进而影响经济的繁荣发展,为了满足ZW市经济发展所要的电力负荷需求、以及资源整合的目的,该区对配电网进行合理科学的规划和改造,同时对电网规划的方案进行科学有效的决策是十分有必要的,一方面能够验证规划项目的有效性,另一方面能够通过决策研究发现配电网规划项目存在的问题,为今后其他的配电网规划项目提供重要的参考依据。电力负荷预测是供电规划的基础和核心,电力负荷预测是城市电网规划中的基础工作,对规划的质量起关键作用。由于电力负荷受到各种不确定的随机因素的影响,在电力负荷的数据序列中存在非平稳性、非线性和随时间变化的特点,本文一改传统的电力负荷预测方法—空间负荷预测法,将智能算法应用到实际的电网规划的负荷预测中,通过集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)将电力负荷的数据序列分解为一系列相互独立的固有模态函数和一个残余函数,并采用遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA),将分解之后的一系列函数赋予一定的权重,最后根据每个函数的序列特征分别采用最小二乘法支持向量机(Least Square Support Vector Machine,LSSVM)和非参数广义自回归条件异方差(non-parametric generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity,NPGARCH)进行预测,最后将预测的结果累加,得到目标电力负荷预测结果,实例证明,该方法能够有效提高电力负荷预测的精度,从而为配电网规划的科学性和安全性提供可靠的基础。其次,对ZW市的配电网概况进行分析,从配网规划的目标、原则以及重点出发,研究了目前该市配电网中各电压等级中存在的问题,结合这些问题,分析研究了在配电网规划中涉及到的利益主体的利益需求,以此构建了多目标群决策的评价指标,提出了基于熵权理论的配电网规划方案的多目标群决策模型。将该模型应用到ZW市配电网规划中,结果表明该该市配电网规划方案满足各方主体的总体利益,因此该规划方案是比较合理科学的。
[Abstract]:The reason why urban distribution network can become an important component of power system is not only because it can play an indispensable role in the rational allocation of resources. At the same time, it plays a great role in ensuring the quality of local power supply and promoting the development of local economy. Therefore, reasonable, scientific and perfect distribution network planning is particularly important. With the rapid development of economy, the original distribution network construction can not keep up with the speed of development. To a certain extent, it even restricts the development of the power system, and then affects the prosperity of the economy. In order to meet the demand of electric power load for the economic development of ZW city and the purpose of resource integration, it is necessary to plan and transform the distribution network reasonably and scientifically, and to make scientific and effective decision on the power network planning scheme at the same time. On the one hand, it can verify the effectiveness of the planning project, on the other hand, it can find out the problems existing in the distribution network planning project through decision-making research, which provides an important reference for other distribution network planning projects in the future. Power load forecasting is the basis and core of power supply planning, and power load forecasting is the basic work of urban power network planning, which plays a key role in the quality of power supply planning. Because the power load is affected by various uncertain random factors, and there are non-stationary, nonlinear and time-varying characteristics in the data series of power load, this paper changes the traditional power load forecasting method-space load forecasting method. The intelligent algorithm is applied to load forecasting in practical power network planning. The data sequence of power load is decomposed into a series of independent inherent mode functions and a residual function by means of the set empirical mode decomposition (Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition). Genetic algorithm (GA) is used to give a certain weight to a series of functions after decomposition. Finally, according to the sequence characteristics of each function, the least square support vector machine (Least Square Support Vector machine) and the nonparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (NPGARCH) are used to predict each function. The result of target power load forecasting is obtained. An example shows that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of power load forecasting, thus providing a reliable basis for the scientific and security of distribution network planning. Secondly, the general situation of distribution network in ZW city is analyzed. From the goal, principle and emphasis of distribution network planning, the problems existing in each voltage grade of distribution network in this city are studied, and these problems are combined. This paper analyzes and studies the interest needs of the stakeholders involved in the distribution network planning, constructs the evaluation index of multi-objective group decision making, and puts forward a multi-objective group decision-making model of distribution network planning scheme based on entropy weight theory. The model is applied to the distribution network planning of ZW city. The results show that the distribution network planning scheme of ZW city meets the overall interests of all parties, so the plan is reasonable and scientific.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM715

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