计及风电场的发输电系统可靠性评估
发布时间：2018-11-08 18:13
【摘要】：由于能源短缺和环境污染问题日益严重,风能作为一种可再生、无污染的新能源得到了大力的推广,同时风力发电技术也已经发展成熟,接入电网的风电容量逐渐增加。但是风力发电的波动性和不可控性对电力系统安全可靠运行产生了影响,因此对计及风电场电力系统进行可靠性评估显得尤为重要。本文介绍了计及风电场的发输电系统可靠性评估的流程,主要是对风电场的风速建模预测、风电场可靠性建模和结合可靠性评估方法对发输电系统可靠性进行研究。主要工作如下所示:1.针对时间序列法在非平稳风速预测中精度差的问题,本文提出了一种ARIMA-BP组合预测模型,有效的提高了非平稳风速序列的预测精度。2.考虑到风电场风速的独特性,建立风电场模型,主要包括风电场输出功率模型、风电场尾流效应模型和风机停运模型,为下文中的可靠性评估打下基础。3.结合重要抽样和控制变量思想的改进了重要抽样法,该方法结合了重要抽样法和控制变量法的特性,同时在重要抽样里面采用舍取控制法选取适合重要概率函数,最终实现系统的状态概率分布函数的优化,避免在常规蒙特卡罗法电力系统可靠性评估过程中效率偏低和算法退化的问题,有效地提高了电力系统可靠性评估的计算效率。4.根据改进的重要抽样法对接入风电场的IEEE-RTS可靠性测试系统进行可靠性评估,计算可靠性指标和收敛判据,验证该算法的优越性。
[Abstract]:As a result of energy shortage and environmental pollution, wind energy as a renewable, non-polluting new energy has been vigorously promoted. At the same time, wind power generation technology has been developed and the wind capacity connected to the power grid has gradually increased. However, the volatility and uncontrollability of wind power generation have an impact on the safe and reliable operation of power system, so it is very important to evaluate the reliability of power system considering wind farm. This paper introduces the process of reliability evaluation of power generation and transmission system considering wind farm, mainly studies the wind speed modeling and prediction of wind farm, the reliability modeling of wind farm and the reliability evaluation method of power generation and transmission system. The main work is as follows: 1. In order to solve the problem of poor precision of time series method in the prediction of non-stationary wind speed, this paper presents a ARIMA-BP combined forecasting model, which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of non-stationary wind speed series. 2. Considering the uniqueness of wind speed of wind farm, the wind farm model is established, which includes wind farm output power model, wind farm wake effect model and wind turbine outage model. The important sampling method is improved by combining the important sampling and the control variable idea. The method combines the characteristics of the important sampling method and the control variable method. At the same time, the appropriate important probability function is selected by the rejection control method in the important sampling. Finally, the state probability distribution function of the power system is optimized to avoid the problems of low efficiency and algorithm degradation in the process of reliability evaluation of power system by conventional Monte Carlo method, and the computational efficiency of power system reliability evaluation is improved effectively. 4. According to the improved important sampling method, the reliability of IEEE-RTS reliability test system connected to wind farm is evaluated, the reliability index and convergence criterion are calculated, and the superiority of the algorithm is verified.
【学位授予单位】：上海电机学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM614
[Abstract]:As a result of energy shortage and environmental pollution, wind energy as a renewable, non-polluting new energy has been vigorously promoted. At the same time, wind power generation technology has been developed and the wind capacity connected to the power grid has gradually increased. However, the volatility and uncontrollability of wind power generation have an impact on the safe and reliable operation of power system, so it is very important to evaluate the reliability of power system considering wind farm. This paper introduces the process of reliability evaluation of power generation and transmission system considering wind farm, mainly studies the wind speed modeling and prediction of wind farm, the reliability modeling of wind farm and the reliability evaluation method of power generation and transmission system. The main work is as follows: 1. In order to solve the problem of poor precision of time series method in the prediction of non-stationary wind speed, this paper presents a ARIMA-BP combined forecasting model, which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of non-stationary wind speed series. 2. Considering the uniqueness of wind speed of wind farm, the wind farm model is established, which includes wind farm output power model, wind farm wake effect model and wind turbine outage model. The important sampling method is improved by combining the important sampling and the control variable idea. The method combines the characteristics of the important sampling method and the control variable method. At the same time, the appropriate important probability function is selected by the rejection control method in the important sampling. Finally, the state probability distribution function of the power system is optimized to avoid the problems of low efficiency and algorithm degradation in the process of reliability evaluation of power system by conventional Monte Carlo method, and the computational efficiency of power system reliability evaluation is improved effectively. 4. According to the improved important sampling method, the reliability of IEEE-RTS reliability test system connected to wind farm is evaluated, the reliability index and convergence criterion are calculated, and the superiority of the algorithm is verified.
【学位授予单位】：上海电机学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM614
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