火力发电厂电气部分可靠性管理研究

发布时间：2018-12-17 08:26

【摘要】：火电厂电气设备可靠性管理是关乎火电厂正常运营的一个主要手段。本文在阐述电力系统可靠性管理理论的基础上,介绍了火电厂电气部分的构成和常见故障形式及其传统的可靠性分析模型。同时,根据火电厂电气故障影响因素多、范围广、时间不固定的特点,本研究采用定量和定性分析相结合、传统数学分析与人工智能相结合的方法,构建了基于petri网的火电厂电气部分故障树模型,研究火电厂电气部分故障及其可靠性。并针对模型分析结论,探讨了火电厂电气部分可靠性管理方法和措施。研究的主要问题和研究结论如下:(1)对火电厂电气设备进行分类,分析了不同电气的不同故障模式,并采用时序模拟法和故障解析法,根据不同元件故障间的相关性,建立了比较符合实际的一般性元件可靠性模型。(2)基于发供电系统中多重故障发生概率和不同故障状态,单纯采用一般性可靠性模型进行定量分析或者定性分析,容易忽略多种设备、多重故障的影响,从而产生很大的误差。因此,本研究拟采用定性分析和定量分析相结合、传统统计分析与现代人工智能分析相结合的方法,以克服发供电系统中多重故障发生概率和不同故障状态带来的不确定因素对评估结果的影响。得到更为贴近现实的电力系统中的电气可靠性评估结果。(3)采用petri网对传统故障树模型进行了拓展,改进了一般性元件可靠性模型难以分析多重故障状态、多重时序的难以描述的局限性。此方法可有效发现电气故障发生的概率和规律,结合专家系统具有准确率高的优点,拓宽了可靠性评估方法。(4)基于petri网对传统故障树模型的火电厂电气部分可靠性实例分析表明:断路器、变压器元件的故障率、灵敏度、修复率以及检修时间对电力系统可靠性水平影响较大。应加强制定科学的巡检维护制度,加强断路器、变压器的可靠性管理。本文针对可靠性评估结果提出的可靠性管理措施具有一定的实践价值。
[Abstract]:Reliability management of electric equipment in thermal power plant is one of the main methods related to the normal operation of thermal power plant. Based on the theory of power system reliability management, this paper introduces the composition and common fault forms of electric part of thermal power plant and its traditional reliability analysis model. At the same time, according to the characteristics of many influencing factors, wide range and indefinite time of electric fault in thermal power plant, this study adopts the method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, traditional mathematical analysis and artificial intelligence. Based on petri net, the fault tree model of thermal power plant's electrical part is constructed, and the fault and its reliability of thermal power plant's electrical part are studied. Based on the conclusion of model analysis, the methods and measures of reliability management for electric part of thermal power plant are discussed. The main problems and conclusions are as follows: (1) the electrical equipment of thermal power plant is classified, the different fault modes of different electrical devices are analyzed, and the time series simulation and fault analysis method are adopted, according to the correlation between different components' faults. The reliability model of general components is established. (2) based on the probability of multiple faults and different fault states in power generation and power supply system, the general reliability model is used to analyze quantitatively or qualitatively. It is easy to ignore the influence of many kinds of equipment and multiple faults, thus producing great error. Therefore, this study is intended to combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, traditional statistical analysis and modern artificial intelligence analysis. In order to overcome the influence of the probability of multiple faults and the uncertain factors brought by different fault states on the evaluation results in power generation and power supply systems. The results of electrical reliability evaluation in power system are obtained. (3) the traditional fault tree model is extended by using petri net, and the general component reliability model is improved to analyze the multi-fault state. The indescribable limitations of multiple time series. This method can effectively discover the probability and rule of electrical failure, and combine with expert system has the advantage of high accuracy. The reliability evaluation method is broadened. (4) based on petri net, the reliability analysis of electrical part of thermal power plant based on traditional fault tree model shows that the failure rate and sensitivity of circuit breakers and transformer components, Repair rate and repair time have great influence on the reliability level of power system. We should strengthen the establishment of scientific inspection and maintenance system and strengthen the reliability management of circuit breakers and transformers. The reliability management measures proposed in this paper have some practical value.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM621

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