风电功率概率预测方法及展望

发布时间：2019-02-18 19:16

【摘要】：风电功率的概率预测能提供风电功率的预测区间或分布函数,国内相关的研究和应用尚处于起步阶段。文中对风电功率概率预测的基本框架、主要模式、难点和热点进行了综述。首先,明确了概率预测的概念及其适用问题。然后,对概率预测的建模方法提出了两种不同的分类方式:按照是否进行条件化假设或参数化假设进行分类,并介绍了概率预测中涉及的新型算法和概率预测的评价指标。最后,结合概率预测发展现状,针对误差分析不精细、概率预测与电力系统结合不充分等不足,总结了今后的发展方向和需要进一步探索的研究内容。
[Abstract]:The probability prediction of wind power can provide the prediction interval or distribution function of wind power, and the related research and application in China is still in the initial stage. In this paper, the basic framework, main modes, difficulties and hotspots of the probability prediction of wind power are reviewed. Firstly, the concept of probabilistic prediction and its application are clarified. Then, two different classification methods are proposed for the modeling method of probabilistic prediction: the classification is based on the conditional hypothesis or parametric hypothesis, and the new algorithm and the evaluation index of probabilistic prediction are introduced. Finally, according to the present situation of probabilistic prediction, aiming at the deficiency of error analysis and insufficient combination of probabilistic prediction and power system, this paper summarizes the future development direction and research contents that need to be further explored.
【作者单位】： 清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系;电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室清华大学;甘肃省电力公司风电技术中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190101) 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0900101) 国家电网公司科技项目(522727160002)~~
【分类号】：TM614
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本文编号：2426121