大规模消纳可再生能源对电网脆弱性影响的评价研究

发布时间：2019-03-31 10:52

【摘要】：随着环境的日益恶化与传统化石能源各种弊端的凸显,发展可再生能源逐渐成为解决当前环境问题和能源危机的重要途径之一,目前各国都在大力发展可再生能源。但由于其具有多变性、间歇性、随机性,以及不易控的源动力和不稳定的输出性,对电网的安全运行造成了极大的影响。基于大规模消纳可再生能源的电网作为一个复杂系统,其脆弱性问题是不容忽视的,而电网脆弱性评价的目的便是找出网络自身的薄弱环节,以增强其安全稳定性,提高网络的可靠性。因此,迫切需要对大规模消纳可再生能源的电网脆弱性进行研究,以保证大规模可再生能源并网后的系统可靠运行。本文对大规模消纳可再生能源造成的电网脆弱性影响进行全面、科学地评价研究。首先,归纳梳理了国内外关于可再生能源发电、电网脆弱性评价、电网评价指标体系构建等相关研究内容,对其研究现状和发展动态进行了概述。其次,介绍了电网脆弱性的定义、分类,以及电网脆弱性评价理论,并根据风险评价的理论方法和可再生能源并网的基本情况,从发电环节、输变电环节、配电环节、用电环节和调度环节五个维度对电网的脆弱性影响因素进行系统地分析,建立了基于大规模消纳可再生能源的电网脆弱性评价指标体系。最后,在计算指标权重时,本文先后采用了粗糙集——粒子群优化的属性约简算法和基于条件信息熵的权重确定方法,使结果更加科学、准确、客观,并将可信性理论应用于电网的脆弱性评价中,建立了基于可信性理论的电网脆弱性评价模型。综上所述,本文建立了大规模消纳可再生能源的电网脆弱性评价指标体系和评价模型,并在此基础上选取西北某电网为算例进行分析说明,论证了电网脆弱性评价模型的有效性和实用性,并根据评价结果给出了相应的建议,为可再生能源发展规划、电网安全防御体系构建提供了决策依据。
[Abstract]:With the deterioration of the environment and the highlight of the disadvantages of the traditional fossil energy, the development of renewable energy has gradually become one of the important ways to solve the current environmental problems and energy crisis. At present, all countries are vigorously developing renewable energy. However, due to its variability, intermittency, randomness, uncontrollable source power and unstable output, it has a great impact on the safe operation of the power grid. As a complex system, the vulnerability of the power grid based on the large-scale consumption of renewable energy can not be ignored, and the purpose of the vulnerability evaluation is to find out the weakness of the network itself, so as to enhance its security and stability. Improve the reliability of the network. Therefore, there is an urgent need to study the vulnerability of large-scale renewable energy grid, so as to ensure the reliable operation of large-scale renewable energy system. In this paper, the impact of large-scale consumption of renewable energy on the vulnerability of power grid is comprehensively and scientifically evaluated. Firstly, the related research contents of renewable energy generation, power grid vulnerability assessment, power grid evaluation index system construction and so on are summarized, and the research status and development trend of renewable energy generation, power grid vulnerability assessment and power grid evaluation index system are summarized in this paper. Secondly, the definition and classification of power grid vulnerability are introduced, and the theory of grid vulnerability assessment is introduced. According to the theory and method of risk assessment and the basic situation of grid connection of renewable energy, from the power generation link, the transmission and transformation link, the distribution link, The factors affecting the vulnerability of power grid are systematically analyzed in five dimensions of power consumption and dispatching, and a vulnerability evaluation index system based on large-scale consumption of renewable energy is established. Finally, when calculating the index weight, this paper adopts the attribute reduction algorithm of rough set-Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and the weight determination method based on conditional information entropy, which makes the result more scientific, accurate and objective. The credibility theory is applied to the vulnerability assessment of the power grid, and a vulnerability assessment model based on the credibility theory is established. In conclusion, a vulnerability evaluation index system and an evaluation model for large-scale renewable energy consumption are established in this paper. On this basis, a power grid in northwest China is selected as an example to analyze and explain. The validity and practicability of the vulnerability assessment model of power grid are demonstrated, and the corresponding suggestions are given according to the evaluation results, which provides the decision-making basis for the planning of renewable energy development and the construction of power network security defense system.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TM711

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