高速铁路牵引变电所可靠性分析与风险评估

发布时间：2019-04-09 14:14

【摘要】：由《中长期铁路网规划》可知,高速铁路作为重大的基础设施与重大民生工程是今后国家工程建设的重点,牵引变电所是高速铁路供电系统电能转换控制的关键,即承担着外部电力系统的输送来的电能,同时向接触网稳定供电,对其供电的可靠性以及风险隐患进行研究显得尤为重要。同时,高铁牵引变电所的可靠运行也是高铁安全运营的保障,一旦高铁牵引变电所发生供电故障,那么将引起列车晚点甚至停运、大量旅客滞留,给社会造成巨大的经济损失。高铁牵引变电所具有可修复性,冗余性等一些动态特性,传统的可靠性研究方法大多是基于静态的研究,也没有考虑可修复特性;针对以上问题,在可靠性研究方面本文采用FMEA(Failure Mode And Effects Analysis,故障模式后果分析)与DFTA(Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis,动态故障树分析)两种方法共同进行定性与定量分析。首先,掌握高铁变电所的结构特点、电气主接线形式以及所内的电气设备,根据现场实际运行情况以及参考资料对各个一次设备的故障模式进行细致分类,通过故障模式找出与之相应的故障原因、故障后果及解决方案,并建立FMEA表。其次,以FMEA表中一次设备故障作为高铁牵引变电所DFTA模型的底事件,并结合DFTA相关方法特点寻找独立的动态子树与静态子树模块,结合已知数据计算可靠性相应指标如可用度,首次失效前平均工作时间;最后,对计算结果进行分析,找出所内存在的薄弱电气一次设备。在风险评估研究方面,以风险评估的原理为基础,综合考虑人员、环境、管理、设备四大影响因素,构建高铁牵引变电风险评估层次模型;运用模糊数学理论,提出改进模糊层次分析法与熵权法分别对系统进行主客观的赋权计算,并解得最终的综合权重向量。改用评分机制来替代传统模糊评判中的最大隶属度原则,并确定系统的最终得分与风险等级。改进模糊综合评判在赋权计算上将传统的1-9标度语言改为3标度语言,简化计算难度,评分机制克服最大隶属度原则的一些缺点,相比于传统最大隶属度原则更为科学,客观地反映高铁牵引变电所的风险水平。通过算例结果表明,可靠性分析与风险评估研究所采用的方法简单、有效,为工程实际应用奠定良好的应用理论基础。
[Abstract]:According to the medium-and long-term Railway Network Planning, high-speed railway as a major infrastructure and major people's livelihood project will be the focus of the national construction in the future, and traction substation is the key to the power conversion control of the high-speed railway power supply system. That is to say, it is very important to study the reliability and hidden danger of electric power supply, which is responsible for the transmission of electric energy from the external power system and the stable power supply to the catenary at the same time. At the same time, the reliable operation of the high-speed railway traction substation is also the guarantee of the high-speed railway safe operation. Once the power supply failure of the high-speed rail traction substation occurs, the train will be delayed or even stopped, and a large number of passengers will be stranded, which will cause huge economic losses to the society. High-speed railway traction substation has some dynamic characteristics such as repairable redundancy and so on. Most of the traditional reliability research methods are based on static research and do not consider the repairable characteristics. In order to solve the above problems, both qualitative and quantitative analysis are carried out by using FMEA (Failure Mode And Effects Analysis, (failure Mode consequence Analysis) and DFTA (Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis, (dynamic Fault Tree Analysis) methods in reliability research. First of all, master the structural characteristics of the high-speed transformer substation, the main electrical wiring form and the electrical equipment, according to the actual operation of the site and reference materials for each primary equipment fault mode is carefully classified. Through the fault mode to find out the corresponding fault causes, fault consequences and solutions, and set up the FMEA table. Secondly, the primary equipment failure in the FMEA table is taken as the bottom event of the DFTA model of the high-speed railway traction substation, and the independent dynamic subtree and static subtree module are found according to the characteristics of the DFTA-related methods, and the reliability indexes such as availability are calculated according to the known data. Average working time before the first failure; Finally, the calculation results are analyzed to find out the weak electrical primary equipment. In the aspect of risk assessment research, based on the principle of risk assessment, the risk assessment hierarchy model of high-speed railway traction and substation is constructed, considering the four major influencing factors of personnel, environment, management and equipment. Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics, an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method are proposed to calculate the subjective and objective weights of the system respectively, and the final synthetic weight vectors are obtained. The principle of maximum membership degree in traditional fuzzy evaluation is replaced by the scoring mechanism, and the final score and risk grade of the system are determined. To improve fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the traditional 1 ~ 9 scale language is changed into three scale language in weighted calculation. The difficulty of calculation is simplified and the scoring mechanism overcomes some shortcomings of the maximum membership principle, which is more scientific than the traditional maximum degree of membership principle. Objectively reflect the risk level of high-speed railway traction substation. The results of an example show that the method used in the study of reliability analysis and risk assessment is simple and effective, which lays a good theoretical foundation for the practical application of the project.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U224

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