基于云模型和灰色模糊综合评判的高压断路器状态评估

发布时间：2017-12-27 22:34

本文关键词：基于云模型和灰色模糊综合评判的高压断路器状态评估　出处：《山东大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会和经济的发展,为满足生产和生活的需求,电网的规模进一步扩大,其安全稳定运行将面临着更加严峻的考验,作为电力系统的重要组成部分,电力设备的运行状态将直接影响电力系统的运行。高压断路器作为电力系统的核心开关设备,在电网中起到保护与控制双重作用,其保护作用主要体现在当电力线路或设备发生故障时,配合继电保护装置,快速切除电力系统故障,保证系统中非故障区域正常运行,其控制作用主要体现在电力系统正常运行时,把部分电力设备或线路投入或切除,以满足电力系统运行需求。高压断路器在运行过程中承受电、热、环境等因素的影响,其性能将发生一定程度的劣化,从而对电力系统的稳定运行造成潜在的威胁,若劣化至一定程度则发展为故障,将对电力系统的运行产生直接影响,轻则引起部分用户断电,或者造成部分电力设备的损坏,重则引起电力系统连锁反应导致系统的崩溃,即大面积停电,将对人们的生产与生活造成重大的影响。因此,对高压断路器进行准确有效的状态评估为进一步制定维护计划保证电力系统的安全稳定运行具有重要的意义。高压断路器状态评估系统作为一个复杂的多因素评估系统,其评估因素具有模糊性、灰色性及随机性。本文在调研和总结前人的工作的基础上,将云模型理论和灰色模糊综合评判应用到高压断路器的状态评估中,提出了一种新的高压断路器状态评估思路,综合考虑了高压断路器状态评估因素的模糊性、灰色性及随机性,使评估结果更加有效可靠。首先,本文在基于高压断路器相关试验项目及运行参数分析的基础上,结合系统建模的相关原则,选取代表性指标,建立了多层次评估因素集；其次,综合考虑运算量及评估精度,合理地划分运行状态等级；然后,采用改进的层次分析法确定权重集的模部,并结合信息的充裕程度及专家的经验确定权重集的灰部。权重集的模部表明同一层次各评估因素的相对重要性,灰部表示相应模部确定的可信度。最后,结合定量分析与定性分析的方法,通过隶属度来描述评估因素与各状态等级之间的模糊隶属关系,并引入点灰度描述相应模糊关系的可信度,综合建立灰色模糊判别矩阵。对于定量指标,其隶属度的确定采用云模型,对于定性指标,其隶属度确定采用模糊统计试验法。综上,对高压断路器的运行状态进行综合评估,并引用内积法与最大隶属原则相结合的方法确定最终评估结果。实例验证表明,该评估模型可以客观有效地评估高压断路器的运行状态。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and economy, in order to meet the needs of production and life, to further expand the scale of the grid, the safe and stable operation will face a more severe test, as an important part of power system, the operation state of power equipment will directly affect the operation of the power system. High voltage circuit breaker switch as the core equipment of power system protection and control, plays a dual role in power system, and its protective effect is mainly reflected in when faults occur in power line or equipment, with the relay protection device, rapid removal of power system fault, ensure the normal operation of the system in the non fault region, its role is mainly reflected in the normal control operation of the electric power system, part of the power equipment or line input or removal, in order to meet the operation demand of power system. Effect of high voltage circuit breaker in the operation process under electrical and thermal environment and other factors, the deterioration of the properties will be changed to some extent, causing a potential threat to the stable operation of the power system, if the deterioration to a certain extent the development of fault, the operation of the electric power system will produce the direct impact of light caused some users off, or damage the part of power equipment, heavy power system caused by chain reaction lead to the collapse of the system, namely the blackout area, will have a great impact on people's production and life. Therefore, accurate and effective state assessment for high-voltage circuit breakers is of great significance for further developing maintenance plan and ensuring safe and stable operation of power system. The state evaluation system of high voltage circuit breaker is a complex multi factor evaluation system, and its evaluation factors are fuzzy, grey and random. This paper summarizes previous work in research and on the cloud model theory and grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied to the condition assessment of high voltage circuit breaker, put forward a new kind of high voltage circuit breaker condition assessment ideas, considering the fuzziness and randomicity, grey evaluation factors for high voltage circuit breaker. The evaluation results more effective and reliable. First of all, based on the analysis of the relevant test items and operation parameters of high voltage circuit breaker based on the combination of related principles, system modeling, selecting representative indicators, the establishment of a multi-level evaluation factor set; secondly, considering the amount of calculation and the evaluation precision, reasonable division of running state level; then, the improved model the AHP to determine the weight set, grey part adequacy and combined with the experience of expert information to determine the weight set. The modulus of the weight set shows the relative importance of the evaluation factors at the same level, and the grey dept represents the reliability of the corresponding model department. Finally, combined with quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, we describe the fuzzy membership relationship between evaluation factors and each state grade by membership degree, and introduce point gray to describe the credibility of corresponding fuzzy relations, and establish grey fuzzy discrimination matrix. For the quantitative index, the membership degree is determined by the cloud model, and the membership degree of the qualitative index is determined by the fuzzy statistical test method. In a comprehensive way, the operation state of the high voltage circuit breaker is evaluated comprehensively, and the method of inner product and the maximum membership principle are combined to determine the final evaluation results. The example verification shows that the evaluation model can objectively and effectively evaluate the running state of high voltage circuit breaker.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM561

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