S光伏发电项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 17:00

本文关键词：S光伏发电项目风险评价研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着各国经济的不断发展,世界各国对能源的需求也不断增加,能源的充分供应对各国经济的增长有巨大影响。众所周知,能源是一国经济发展的重要驱动力,能源供应的短缺和不足,必将会给一国经济的增长和发展带来严重的影响,甚至会影响到国家的民生安定和政治稳定,严重的会引起国际社会的动荡。在各国对能源的需求不断增加、能源供给短缺明显情况下,世界各国正加紧发展新能源,寻求替代能源。为此,光伏发电项目成为各国重点发展的项目。与其他发达国家相比,我国的光伏发电项目起步晚、技术基础薄弱,但由于政府在相关产业政策方面的支持和鼓励,我国的光伏发电项目进步巨大。但是,由于我国的光伏发电项目的技术水平低,在该项目发展初期,其投资风险不容忽视。盲目投资可能会造成太阳能光伏项目的虚假繁荣,企业在项目投资、决策方面的主观性特征也增加了投资决策的风险。2008年以来的全球金融危机使世界各国的场需求萎缩。由于我国缺乏光伏发电项目的核心技术,对风险的估计不足,从而导致决策失误,使我国光伏产业陷入前所未有的困境。由于光伏发电项目的投资巨大,建设周期短,运行周期长,一般都在25年以上,占用的土地资源较大。所以,项目的风险比较广.其主要有：政治风险、经济风险、自然风险、财务风险、技术风险、施工风险等。本文采用分析法与模糊综合评价法等项目评价方法,分析光伏发电项目的风险,在全面分析光伏发电项目的风险的基础上,以S光伏发电项目为案例开展风险分析与研究,分析S光伏发电项目的风险水平,提出风险防范措施。首先,本文深入研究项目风险管理的理论基础,总结学者对风险管理的研究成果,之后分析风险与项目风险之间的联系与区别,阐述风险管理的内涵与特征；其次,分析光伏发电项目的风险因素及特征,阐述光伏发电项目风险识别和风险分析方法；最后,本文基于S光伏发电项目,构建风险评价体系,开展风险评价研究,根据结果提出风险防控措施。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of national economy , the demand of energy is increasing , and the full supply of energy has a great impact on the growth of national economy . It is well known that energy is an important driving force of the country ' s economic development , and the shortage and shortage of energy supply will have a serious impact on the growth and development of a country ' s economy . Compared with other developed countries , the PV power generation project of our country is very late , the technology is weak , but because of the government ' s support and encouragement in the relevant industrial policy , our country ' s PV power generation project has made great progress . However , because of the low technical level of PV project in our country , its investment risk can not be ignored in the early stage of the project . Because the investment of PV project is huge , the construction period is short , the operation period is long , usually more than 25 years , the occupied land resource is large . Therefore , the project risk is wide . It mainly includes political risk , economic risk , natural risk , financial risk , technical risk , construction risk , etc . Based on the comprehensive analysis of the risk of PV power generation project , the paper analyzes the risk factors and characteristics of PV power generation project , analyzes the risk factors and characteristics of PV power generation project , and analyzes the risk factors and characteristics of PV power generation project . Finally , based on S PV power generation project , risk evaluation system is constructed , risk evaluation research is carried out , and risk control measures are put forward based on the results .

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM615

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