松江电网主设备负荷预测系统研究与开发

发布时间：2018-01-06 10:26

本文关键词：松江电网主设备负荷预测系统研究与开发　出处：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前,包括松江供电公司在内的我国各地级供电公司多只有区域负荷预测软件;但对地调部门安排电网运行方式而言,掌握主设备(包括主变和线路)负荷预测值更为重要,它是地调部门做好负荷割接计划、优化配网夏季运行方式的基础。与地区负荷总量预测相比,主设备的负荷预测在负荷影响因素、数据预处理方法、负荷预测方法、预测误差分析和返校上都具有特殊性,这也为主设备负荷预测软件开发提出特殊要求。针对上述问题,本文以配网中的主变和10千伏典型馈线为主设备研究对象,分析了松江配网各功能片区近年主设备负荷增长的趋势特点以及错避峰、负荷性质、气象因素对主设备负荷的影响规律;进而根据主设备负荷增长特点,选取月份系数、趋势比率、环比、增幅、倍比五种为主设备负荷预测方法,对各种预测方法的适用性进行了分析;并根据主设备负荷的主要影响因素提出了误差返校方法。围绕主设备负荷预测中的功能需求,进一步设计并开发了主设备负荷预测软件,该软件包括数据预处理模块、趋势分析模块、负荷预测模块、气温影响模块和误差返校模块。软件画面直观、易于操作,可独立实现对负荷数据库的添加、修改、存储、删除、查询等工作;预测结果可存入结果数据库,支持查询、打印功能;还可对预测结果进行误差分析,并可根据气温变化的影响情况调整负荷预测结果。论文最后运用所开发的软件,对松江配网各220KV、110KV、35KV主变和10千伏典型馈线实施了负荷预测。结果表明,该软件的使用能获得良好的预测精度,有效找到负荷热点,为电网优化运行提供重要依据。
[Abstract]:At present, including the Songjiang power supply company, our country level power supply companies only regional load forecasting software; but for dispatching departments to arrange power grid operation mode, grasp the main equipment (including the main transformer and line) load forecasting is more important, it is to adjust the load departments cutover plan, optimizing distribution network based summer operation the area. Compared with the total load forecast, the main equipment in the load forecasting load factors, data preprocessing methods, load forecasting methods, forecasting error analysis and to have particularities, the main equipment load forecasting software development put forward special requirements. Aiming at the above problems, based on the power distribution of main transformer 10 thousand volts and typical feeder main equipment research object, analyzed the function of the distribution network in Songjiang area in recent years, the main equipment load growth trend and avoiding peak load and meteorological factors on the main properties. Influence of load; and then according to the main equipment load growth characteristics, select the month trend coefficient, ratio, chain, increase five times more than the main equipment load forecasting method, the applicability of various forecasting methods are analyzed; and according to the main influencing factors of main equipment load error return method is proposed. Based on functional demand the main equipment load forecasting, further design and development of the main equipment load forecasting software, the software includes data preprocessing module, trend analysis module, load forecast module, temperature module and error back module. Software screen is intuitive, easy to operate, can independently achieve add, load on the database storage, modify, delete. Query; prediction results can be stored in the database, support query, print function; also we analyze the error of prediction results, and according to the impact of temperature changes Adjust the load forecasting results. Finally we use the software of 110KV, 220KV, 35KV of the Songjiang distribution network, the main transformer and 10 thousand volt typical feeder implementation of load forecasting. The results show that the use of the software can obtain good prediction accuracy, effectively find the hot load, provide an important basis for optimal operation of power grid.

【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM715;TP311.52

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