含间歇性电源的电源规划方案综合评价

发布时间：2018-01-11 15:34

本文关键词：含间歇性电源的电源规划方案综合评价　出处：《燕山大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电源规划是电力系统规划工作的重要环节,规划方案的好坏将直接影响电力系统运行的多项指标,对系统的安全稳定运行产生巨大影响。在低碳经济环境下,电源规划方案的综合评价需要综合考虑规划方案的供电可靠性、经济效益和环境效益等因素。随着风电、光伏发电等间歇性电源渗透率的不断增加,其发电功率波动性、随机性和不可控性的特点,对电源规划问题提出了新的要求,间歇性电源的接纳能力也成为了评价电源规划方案的重要因素。基于以上分析,本文对含间歇性电源的电源规划方案综合评价问题进行了研究,主要内容如下:首先,分析了电源规划模型及综合评价中指标体系建立方法和评价方法,为含间歇性电源规划方案综合评价问题的深入研究提供了理论基础。其次,研究含间歇性电源的电源规划方案综合评价指标体系。针对其缺少较系统的指标体系的问题,提出了包含可靠性、经济性、间歇性电源接入能力及环保性的初始指标体系。提出了基于灰色关联理论和证据理论的指标体系建立方法,采用灰色关联理论计算得出初始指标体系中的强关联性指标,由证据理论根据信任度分配表决定是否对指标进行筛选。最终建立主客观均满足要求的含间歇性电源的电源规划方案综合评价指标体系。通过算例仿真验证了该指标体系建立方法的有效性。最后,研究含间歇性电源的电源规划方案综合评价方法。针对模糊层次分析法存在的模糊性“不彻底”问题,提出了一种评价矩阵云模型建立方法,采用云模型对模糊层次分析法进行改进,建立了权重集云模型、准则集云模型、评价矩阵云模型和综合评价结果云模型。通过算例仿真验证了所提模型的合理性和有效性,为电源规划方案综合评价提供了一套较系统的方法。
[Abstract]:Power planning is an important part of the power system planning. The quality of the planning scheme will directly affect the power system operation of a number of indicators, and have a huge impact on the safe and stable operation of the system. The comprehensive evaluation of power planning scheme needs to take into account the reliability of power supply, economic benefits and environmental benefits of the planning scheme. With the increasing permeability of intermittent power supply such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation and so on. With the characteristics of power fluctuation, randomness and uncontrollability, new requirements for power planning are put forward. The acceptance ability of intermittent power supply has also become an important factor in evaluating the power planning scheme. Based on the above analysis, the comprehensive evaluation of the power supply planning scheme with intermittent power supply is studied in this paper. The main contents are as follows: firstly, the establishment method and evaluation method of power supply planning model and index system in comprehensive evaluation are analyzed. It provides a theoretical basis for the comprehensive evaluation of power supply planning including intermittent power supply. Secondly, it provides a theoretical basis for the comprehensive evaluation of power supply planning. This paper studies the comprehensive evaluation index system of power supply planning scheme with intermittent power supply. Aiming at the lack of systematic index system, the reliability and economy are proposed. The initial index system of intermittent power supply access ability and environmental protection. The method of establishing index system based on grey relation theory and evidence theory is put forward. The grey correlation theory is used to calculate the strong correlation index in the initial index system. The evidence theory determines whether to screen the index according to the trust distribution table. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation index system of the power supply planning scheme with intermittent power supply is established, which meets the requirements of both subjective and objective. The effectiveness of the method of establishing index system. Finally. This paper studies the comprehensive evaluation method of power planning scheme with intermittent power supply. Aiming at the fuzzy "incomplete" problem existing in the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a method of establishing evaluation matrix cloud model is proposed. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is improved by using the cloud model, and the weighted clustering model and the criterion clustering model are established. The evaluation matrix cloud model and the comprehensive evaluation result cloud model are used to verify the rationality and validity of the proposed model, which provides a systematic method for the comprehensive evaluation of the power planning scheme.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TM715

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