基于动态安全域的大规模风电运行风险评估技术

发布时间：2018-01-13 17:35

本文关键词：基于动态安全域的大规模风电运行风险评估技术　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着电网规模的不断扩大,电力系统结构日趋复杂,系统中的不确定性因素越来越多,尤其是风电等可再生能源的大规模接入,给电力系统安全运行带来了更多的挑战。本文结合动态安全域思想和风险评估理论,研究了风电接入系统的风险评估方法,主要工作如下:(1)研究了大规模风电风险评估技术的相关基础理论,对动态安全域的基本构造方法进行了简要概述;(2)基于线性回归理论中的拟合优度及总偏回归平方和评价指标,提出了改进的动态安全域拟合构造方法,能够更加准确、合理、简洁地计算电力系统的动态安全域边界,便于风险指标的量化分析与应用;(3)基于动态安全域思想,提出了大规模风电运行风险指标计算及综合分析方法,可用于系统日前调度计划的风险水平量化评估,并给出系统的风险时间、严重故障元件以及薄弱环节等信息。基于标准算例进行了仿真验证,结果表明本文所提方法的有效性和准确性。本文研究工作能够为电力系统运行人员确定调度决策提供一定的参考。
[Abstract]:With the continuous expansion of the power grid, the power system structure is becoming more complex in the system more and more uncertain factors, especially the large-scale integration of wind power and other renewable energy sources, brings more challenges to the safe operation of power system. Based on the dynamic security region of ideas and the risk assessment theory, study the risk assessment method of wind power system the main work is as follows: (1) the related basic theory of risk assessment of large scale wind power technology, basic construction method of dynamic security region are summarized; (2) linear regression theory of goodness of fit and partial regression square and evaluation index based on the proposed dynamic security region fitting structure the improved method, which is more accurate, reasonable, dynamic boundary of simple calculation of power system, quantitative analysis and application for risk indicators; (3) based on the idea of dynamic security region, Proposed a large-scale wind power operation risk index calculation and comprehensive analysis method, can be used for system risk level was quantified before scheduling evaluation, and given the risk of information time, serious fault components and weak links. Based on the example simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and accurate. This research work to the power system operation personnel to determine the scheduling decision to provide a reference.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM614

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