光伏发电系统可靠性分析及其置信容量计算

发布时间：2018-01-17 20:34

本文关键词：光伏发电系统可靠性分析及其置信容量计算　出处：《中国电机工程学报》2014年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：大规模光伏发电的接入增加了系统的不确定因素。该文针对光伏发电出力的时序性和随机性,通过天气类型抽样和设备停运概率的分层抽样改进了光伏发电系统的出力模型。将模型应用于并网光伏发电系统的可靠性评估和置信容量的计算中,研究了天气变化、设备故障等随机因素对计算结果的影响,提高了计算的精度。通过对2015年青海省格尔木市并网光伏系统的计算分析,发现电网规模的扩大和光伏电站的分散分布有助于光伏发电置信容量的提升。
[Abstract]:Access to large-scale photovoltaic power increases the uncertainty of the system. This paper aims at the timing and randomness of photovoltaic power generation. Through the weather type sampling and the stratified sampling of equipment outage probability, the model of photovoltaic power generation system is improved. The model is applied to reliability evaluation and confidence capacity calculation of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation system. The influence of random factors, such as weather change and equipment failure, on the calculation results is studied, and the accuracy of calculation is improved. The calculation and analysis of grid-connected photovoltaic system in Golmud City, Qinghai Province in 2015 are carried out. It is found that the expansion of power grid scale and the scattered distribution of photovoltaic power plants contribute to the improvement of the confidence capacity of photovoltaic generation.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学电气工程学院;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划资助项目(863计划)(2011AA 05A103)~~
【分类号】：TM615
【正文快照】： 0引言近年来,太阳能光伏发电技术持续快速发展,并网光伏发电的装机容量迅速增长。截止2012年底,我国光伏累计装机容量已达4.9GW,预计到2020年,光伏发电装机容量将突破20GW[1]。随着光伏发电容量的增加,其出力的随机性和间歇性给系统增加的不确定因素已不容忽视。为了准确衡

【参考文献】