海上风电项目风险分析研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 15:30

本文关键词：海上风电项目风险分析研究　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：风能是一种清洁可再生的绿色能源，“十二五”规划指出我国将持续大规模发展海上风电项目。与陆上风电相比，，海上风电不占用土地资源，海上风能资源丰富，风向更加稳定。但海上风电项目长期暴露在恶劣的海洋环境中，服役条件特殊，这也决定了海上风电项目面临较大的风险。同陆上风电项目相比，海上风电项目具有投入大、技术含量高的特点，其风险管理备受投资者重视。本文首先对海上风电项目风险及风险评价的相关理论做出归纳，阐述了风险的含义及其特征，对海上风电项目所存在的风险的进行识别并评价，并介绍了风险识别的几种常用方法以及海上风电项目风险评价的几种方法，重点介绍了层次分析法的相关理论，并将层次分析法作为本研究中海上风电项目综合风险评估的方法，为评估模型的建立提供方法基础。依据风险评价指标建立原则，在分析海上风电项目风险特征的基础上，运用风险识别的方法，对海上风电项目的风险因素进行全面识别，进而构建海上风电项目综合风险评估指标体系。在构建海上风电项目综合风险评估指标体系的基础上，基于层次分析法建立海上风电项目综合风险评估模型。评估模型中，模型参数是通过层次分析法确定的目标层指标权重，目标层评价因素风险值则是通过参阅规整各相关学科既已成型的研究成果而确定。本研究中海上风电项目综合风险评估模型的建立，细化了评价指标为日前经验不足的海上风电项目风险评估工作提供一种新评估思路。本文以龙源江苏如东150MW海上（潮间带）示范风电场为研究案例进行分析，根据本研究中提出的综合风险评估模型，对该项目的综合风险做出评估。通过该案例分析，这一综合风险评估模型的可行性和科学性得到了验证。本研究中的海上风电项目综合风险评估模型丰富了海上风电项目风险评估体系，为项目管理者提供更加便捷实用的评价方法，为其决策提供可靠依据。
[Abstract]:Wind energy is a clean and renewable green energy. The 12th Five-Year Plan points out that China will continue to develop offshore wind power projects on a large scale. Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power does not occupy land resources. Offshore wind energy resources are abundant and wind direction is more stable, but offshore wind power projects are exposed to harsh marine environment for a long time, and the service conditions are special. Compared with onshore wind power project, offshore wind power project has the characteristics of large investment and high technology content, and its risk management is paid more attention to by investors. In this paper, the risk of offshore wind power projects and risk assessment theory is summarized, the meaning of risk and its characteristics, the risk of offshore wind power project risk identification and evaluation. Several common methods of risk identification and several methods of risk assessment for offshore wind power projects are introduced, with emphasis on the related theories of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as the comprehensive risk assessment method of offshore wind power project in this study, which provides the method foundation for the establishment of evaluation model. Based on the principles of risk evaluation, and on the basis of analyzing the risk characteristics of offshore wind power projects, the risk factors of offshore wind power projects are fully identified by the method of risk identification. On the basis of constructing the comprehensive risk assessment index system of offshore wind power project, the paper constructs the comprehensive risk assessment index system of offshore wind power project. The comprehensive risk assessment model of offshore wind power project is established based on AHP. In the evaluation model, the model parameters are the target layer index weights determined by AHP. The risk value of target evaluation factors is determined by referring to the research results of relevant disciplines. The establishment of comprehensive risk assessment model for offshore wind power projects in this study. The evaluation index provides a new method for risk assessment of offshore wind power project, which is inexperienced before a few days ago. This paper uses 150 MW offshore (intertidal zone) as Longyuan Jiangsu Rudong. The demonstration wind farm is used as a case study. According to the comprehensive risk assessment model proposed in this study, the comprehensive risk of the project is evaluated. The feasibility and scientific nature of this comprehensive risk assessment model has been verified. The comprehensive risk assessment model of offshore wind power project in this study enriches the risk assessment system of offshore wind power project. To provide a more convenient and practical evaluation method for project managers and provide reliable basis for their decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM614

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