电网企业运营风险评价与传递模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 16:57

本文关键词： 电网企业运营风险综合评价 Topsis 风险传递粗糙集　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着我国电力市场体制改革更深层次的推进,传统的“发电、输电、配电和送电”一体化垄断的电力经营模式已经完全发生了改变。电网企业从以往的电力产业体系中分离出来,作为独立运营的经济实体存在。电网企业与发电企业、电网企业与电力用户之间均以电价为纽带,形成了电能的买卖关系。目前国内外对于电网企业运营风险方面的研究成果比较丰富,但大多数都是针对电力市场环境下电网企业面临的各类单独风险进行研究,而对于电网企业面临的总体运营风险的研究内容比较缺乏。基于上述背景,本文对电网企业运营风险管理进行了深入研究,着重建立电网企业运营风险评价模型与电网企业运营风险传递模型,主要包括三个方面的内容：第一,分析了电网企业运营环境及风险特点,着重进行了电网企业运营风险的分类,并引入了电网企业运营风险元传递理论,以此作为课题研究的基础。第二,通过对电网企业运营风险管理现状的分析,指出建立风险管理体系的重要性。并构建了电网企业运营风险评价指标体系,采用灰色关联度对传统的Topsis法进行改进,利用熵权法确定权重,从而对电网企业运营风险进行综合评价并得出量化结果,为电网企业从总体上掌握运营风险提供了重要的参考依据。第三,利用粗糙集理论提出了确定电网企业运营风险元传递权重系数的方法,并基于粗糙集决策方法提取了不完备信息中电网企业运营风险传递路径,并通过实例验证了模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:Along with our country electric power market system reform deeper level advancement, the traditional "generation, the transmission". The integrated monopoly mode of distribution and power transmission has been completely changed. The power grid enterprises have been separated from the former electric power industry system. As an independent economic entity, electricity price is the link between power grid enterprises and power generation enterprises, power grid enterprises and power users. At present, the domestic and foreign research on the operation risk of power grid enterprises is relatively rich. However, most of them are focused on all kinds of individual risks faced by power grid enterprises in the power market environment, but the research content of the overall operational risks faced by power grid enterprises is relatively lacking. Based on the above background. In this paper, the operation risk management of power grid enterprises is deeply studied, and the operation risk assessment model of power grid enterprises and the transmission model of operation risk of power grid enterprises are established, which mainly include three aspects: Firstly, this paper analyzes the operation environment and risk characteristics of power grid enterprises, emphasizes on the classification of operational risks of power grid enterprises, and introduces the transmission theory of operational risk elements of power grid enterprises, which is the basis of the research on this subject. Secondly, by analyzing the current situation of operation risk management in power grid enterprises, the importance of establishing risk management system is pointed out, and the evaluation index system of operational risk of power grid enterprises is constructed. The grey correlation degree is used to improve the traditional Topsis method, and the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight, so that the comprehensive evaluation of the operation risk of power grid enterprises is carried out and the quantitative results are obtained. It provides an important reference basis for power grid enterprises to master the operation risk on the whole. Thirdly, using rough set theory, this paper proposes a method to determine the transmission weight coefficient of grid enterprise operational risk element, and extracts the transmission path of power enterprise operation risk in incomplete information based on rough set decision method. The feasibility of the model is verified by an example.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.61;TM73

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