考虑气候灾害的架空线路停运模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 10:42

本文关键词： 停运率架空线路可靠性模糊规则模糊推理台风冰灾　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：架空线路作为连接不同地区电力设施的必要部分,是电网中最重要的电力元件。随着经济和城市化的不断发展,电能传输需求的不断增加,电网不断延伸,系统的安全性和可靠性越来越得到人们的重视。架空线路跨越范围广,不但连接不同地区变电站、发电厂和负荷点,还起着传输电能的作用。架空线路故障可能造成电网的大面积停电,严重影响生产、生活,甚至造成重大经济损失。研究架空线路可靠性,提高架空线路安全稳定性,有重大的实际意义。建立合理的架空线路停运模型,得到精确的可靠性原始参数,是架空线路可靠性研究的重要工作之一,也为整个电力系统的可靠性评估打下基础。近年来气候异常,气候灾害越来越频繁。架空线路又架设在地面之上,常年暴露在外界环境中,是电力系统中受台风、冰冻灾害影响最大的设备。极端气候虽持续时间不长,但其造成的影响却极其恶劣,使停运率急剧增加。若不考虑气候灾害对架空线路停运率的影响,会使评估结果远远偏离实际,给电力系统规划和调度人员带来误导。建立气候灾害下架空线路的停运模型,得到停运率,有利于气候灾害条件下的线路风险评估。本文分析了台风和冰灾等自然灾害对架空线路停运的影响,介绍了关于气候灾害对电力系统影响的研究现状,分析了几种常用研究方法的优缺点；研究了偏最小二乘建模和模糊建模两种基于小样本的元件停运率建模方法,分析了两种方法的优缺点及适用范围。分析了正常气候下影响线路停运的主要因素,并分别建立了基于线路老化和运行工况的正常气候条件下架空线路的停运模型。分析了台风的特点和发生规律,研究了架空线路受台风影响的停运因素,建立了以风力载荷、地形系数和现在自身状况系数为输入的模糊推理模型,并通过实际算例验证了模型的有效性。分析了冰灾的特点,研究了架空线路受冰灾影响的停运因素,建立了以风力载荷、海拔高度和除冰措施为输入的停运模型,并通过算例分析验证了模型的优越性。
[Abstract]:Overhead line is the most important power element in the power network, as a necessary part to connect the power facilities in different areas. With the development of economy and urbanization, the demand for electric power transmission is increasing, and the power grid is extending. More and more attention has been paid to the safety and reliability of the system. Overhead lines span a wide range, not only connected to different regions of the substation, power plants and load points. The fault of overhead line may cause power outage in a large area of the power network, seriously affect production, life and even cause great economic losses. Study on reliability of overhead line. It is of great practical significance to improve the safety and stability of overhead lines. It is one of the important tasks to establish a reasonable outage model of overhead lines and obtain accurate original reliability parameters. It also lays the foundation for the reliability evaluation of the whole power system. In recent years, the climate is abnormal, climate disasters are more and more frequent, overhead lines are set up on the ground, exposed to the external environment all the year round, it is a typhoon in the power system. The equipment with the greatest impact of freezing disaster. Although the extreme climate does not last for a long time, but its impact is extremely bad, resulting in a sharp increase in the outage rate. If we do not consider the impact of climate disasters on the overhead line outage rate. The evaluation results will deviate from the actual situation and mislead the power system planning and dispatching personnel. The outage model of overhead lines under the climate disaster will be established and the outage rate will be obtained. It is beneficial to the route risk assessment under the condition of climate disaster. In this paper, the influence of natural disasters, such as typhoon and ice disaster, on overhead line outage is analyzed, and the research status of climate disaster on power system is introduced, and the advantages and disadvantages of several common research methods are analyzed. Two modeling methods of component outage rate based on small sample, partial least squares modeling and fuzzy modeling, are studied, the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods and their application range are analyzed, and the main factors affecting line outage in normal climate are analyzed. The outage models of overhead lines under normal climatic conditions are established based on the aging and operating conditions of the lines respectively. The characteristics and occurrence rules of typhoons are analyzed and the factors affecting the outage of overhead lines are studied. The fuzzy inference model with wind load, terrain coefficient and present condition coefficient as input is established, and the validity of the model is verified by practical examples. The characteristics of ice disaster are analyzed. The outage factors of overhead lines affected by ice disaster are studied, and the outage model with wind load, altitude and deicing measures as input is established, and the superiority of the model is verified by an example.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM752

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