新能源发电特性与经济性分析研究

发布时间：2018-02-23 03:25

本文关键词： 新能源新能源模型能源技术经济评价平准化能源成本分析法弃风问题能源政策新能源定价模型　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：化石能源的大量利用带来了资源枯竭和气候变化两大问题,严重威胁人类社会的可持续发展。寻求清洁、可持续的替代能源,成为能源工业的历史挑战。太阳能、风能等新能源以其可再生、清洁无污染的特点逐渐受到人们的关注。在新能源的发展过程中能源价格是能源竞争的关键,只有当新能源与可再生能源在价格上与传统能源形成可比性,能源更替才能通过市场竞争逐渐完成。能源价格受到能源政策、技术进步等因素的影响,因此科学合理的能源发展战略、技术研发战略将对新能源革命起到巨大的推动作用。本文针对我国新能源发展过程中遇到的技术、价格、政策等问题进行分析,基于分析结果并借鉴国外的发展经验从政策角度为我国合理、高效发展新能源提出了一些建议。本文的主要内容如下： (1)分析了我国能源的分布结构、分布特点和能源存储方式,重点研究了以风力发电、太阳能光伏发电为代表的新能源发电输出特性方程,并仿真分析了其发电输出特性。由于受到风能资源和太阳光辐射资源随机性和波动性的影响,风力发电和光伏发电的输出特性都具有随机性和波动性。同时分析了风力发电、光伏发电的不同接入模式对电网规划、运行、保护、经济性等方面的影响。以某省光伏并网为例,计算分析了光伏全年的输出特性及其并网后对该省电网峰谷差的影响。 (2)利用能源技术经济学评价方法—平准化能源成本分析法(Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE),以火力发电、风力发电和光伏发电为例,比较新能源发电与传统能源发电项目的长期投资平均成本。研究表明,在只考虑环境外部效益而不考虑其他鼓励性政策、补贴的前提下,风力发电项目比火力发电项目具有明显的优势,因此应该改变对新能源成本过高的固有认识。在此基础上,通过计算分析,讨论了影响新能源发展的实际因素,提出了国家应该逐步减少对新能源发电环节的补贴,加强对智能电网建设的支持和新能源设备制造业的支持,这样更有利于我国新能源产业的发展。 (3)深入分析了我国产生弃风现象的原因,指出弃风问题本质是电力系统对风电的消纳能力问题,解决弃风问题需要包括风力发电企业、输配电企业以及用电客户在内的各个环节、各个利益相关方的共同努力。对我国目前采用的弃风供暖系统和风储联合运行系统进行了综合性分析,通过分析结果可以看出：系统经济效益受限于热电比,只有当热电比介于1到2之间时系统才能盈利,当热电比大于2时系统将一直处于负盈利状态。同时,折现率对系统的经济效益也有较大的影响,折现率越低,系统地经济效益越好。对于风储联合运行系统进行了经济性分析,重点分析了不同储能系统的技术经济性,飞轮储能系统相对于超级电容储能、超导磁储能来说具有较好的经济性。 (4)针对我国新能源发展过程中出现的一系列问题,分析了我国现行的新能源政策、法律、法规。借鉴国外相关国家的发展经验,并结合我国自身条件,对我国现行的新能源政策提出了一些改进建议：从政府的角度出发,政府应当在新能源的利用当中起到带头作用,并为新能源的发展提供相关的政策保证,例如新能源电价、补贴、税收等；从市场的角度出发,应该建立健全的新能源的消费市场；从资源的角度出发,对新能源资源要进行准确的评估。 (5)分析了现行能源价值模型,影子价格模型、边际机会成本模型、收益现值模型、CGE模型等,提出了适合于新能源的包含环境因素和旋转备用因素的新能源价值模型,过该模型可以为新能源发电上网电价的确定和国家对于新能源补贴政策的出台提供理论依据。以风电为例,用该模型进行了实例计算,在考虑环境价值和旋转备用后,风电场在现行上网电价下是具有一定的经济效益的。
[Abstract]:The extensive use of fossil fuels has brought two major problems of resource depletion and climate change, a serious threat to sustainable development of human society. Looking for clean, renewable and alternative energy, energy industry become historical challenges. Solar, wind and other new energy which is renewable, clean and pollution-free characteristics gradually attracted people's attention. In the process of development of new energy in energy prices is the key to energy competition, only when the new energy and renewable energy and traditional energy in the price formation of comparable energy to change through market competition gradually. The price of energy by the energy policy, the impact of technological progress and other factors, so the scientific and rational energy development strategy, technology development strategy will be to the enormous impetus to the new energy revolution. This paper meets the development process of China's new energy technology, price, policy issues such as analysis, base On the basis of the analysis of the results and the foreign development experience, some suggestions are made for the rational and efficient development of new energy in China from the policy point of view.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) analysis of the distribution structure of China's energy, energy distribution and storage methods was studied by wind power, new energy power output characteristic equation of solar photovoltaic power generation as the representative, and simulated its power output characteristics. Due to the impact of wind energy resources and solar radiation resources and random fluctuations. And the output characteristic of wind power and photovoltaic power generation with randomness and volatility. At the same time, the analysis of wind power, photovoltaic power generation with different access mode of power network planning, operation, protection, economy and other aspects. Taking a photovoltaic effect as an example, calculation and analysis of the output characteristics and the year of PV the power grid peak valley difference.
(2) the use of energy technology economics evaluation method - the levelized cost of energy analysis method (Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE), with thermal power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation as an example, the average cost of long-term investment in new energy power generation and traditional energy generation projects. Research shows that, without considering other incentive policies only consider the external environment benefits, subsidies under the premise of wind power project has obvious advantages than the thermal power project, it should change the inherent understanding of the new energy of high cost. On this basis, through calculation and analysis, the factors influencing the development of new energy sources is discussed, proposed that the country should gradually reduce the new energy the power generation sector subsidies, strengthen the construction of smart grid support and new energy equipment manufacturing industry support, which is more conducive to the development of new energy industry in China.
(3) an in-depth analysis of the reasons of our country have abandoned wind phenomenon, pointed out that the essence of abandoned wind problem is consumptive ability problem of wind power in power system, solve the problems of abandoned wind need to include wind power enterprises, power transmission enterprises and electricity customers, all aspects of the joint efforts of all stakeholders.
The abandoned wind heating system and air reservoir joint operation system used in our country is analyzed, the results show that: the economical efficiency of the system is limited to power ratio, only when the power ratio between 1 to 2 when the system can be profitable, when the thermoelectric ratio is greater than 2. The system will have been negative profit. At the same time, the discount rate of the economic benefit of the system also has a greater impact, the lower the discount rate, the better economic benefit. The system for wind reservoir joint operation system of economic analysis, this paper analyzes the technology of economy of different energy storage system, the flywheel energy storage system with super capacitor, superconducting magnetic energy storage it has a good economy.
(4) a series of problems for the development process of China's new energy, analysis of China's current new energy policy, laws and regulations. Referring to the development experience of foreign countries, combined with China's own conditions, puts forward some improvement suggestions for China's current new energy policy: from the perspective of government point of view, the government should play a leading role in the use of new energy sources, to provide relevant policy and guarantee for the development of new energy sources, such as new energy price subsidies, tax, etc.; from the perspective of the market, should establish a sound new energy consumption market; from the perspective of resources, new energy resources accurate assessment.
(5) analysis of the current energy value model, the shadow price model, the marginal opportunity cost model, NPV model, CGE model, put forward the value of new energy model including environmental factors for new energy and reserve factors, the model can determine the price and provide for new energy subsidy policies the theoretical basis for the new energy generation. Wind power as an example, the calculation of the model, in consideration of the environmental value and the spinning reserve, the wind farm has certain economic benefits in the existing tariff.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM619

【参考文献】