检修方式下地区电网运行风险评估及对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 20:17

本文选题：风险评估　切入点：检修方式　出处：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力设备检修是供电企业日常运行的重要工作，检修期间电网的设备冗余度明显下降，致使电网运行风险增加，给系统的安全稳定和可靠供电带来更严峻挑战。因此，研究检修方式下的地区电网运行风险评估方法，客观准确地识别设备检修对系统运行风险的影响，在此基础上为制定风险应对策略降低系统在检修期间的运行风险，具有重要的意义。在此前提下，本文作了如下工作：针对地区电网和检修方式的风险特征，首先定义相应的运行风险指标体系，分系统、区域两个层面以及节点失压和支路过载两个维度描述系统的风险。然后介绍检修方式下地区电网运行风险评估方法。采用状态枚举法实现系统状态选择，然后进行计及天气因素和设备负载率因素的故障概率值计算。风险后果严重程度值计算综合采用孤岛检测失压分析、备自投装置动作分析、潮流计算和基于灵敏度分析的N-1断线潮流计算等方法，，使风险评估结果更高效准确。在综合概率值和风险后果的基础上实现检修方式下系统的风险评估。为提高评估效率，采用检修影响区域定位缩小故障集从而减小系统状态空间和计算规模。对地区电网进行检修方式下的运行风险评估旨在更好的认识系统存在的风险，同时分析其风险变化产生的原因，掌握设备检修对系统风险影响的规律，从而为系统运行人员采取控制措施应对风险变化提供决策支持。文中采用基于风险分析的负荷转供方案优选和考虑负荷转供的设备过载风险控制策略两个手段应对检修方式下系统的风险变化。开发了相应的适应地区电网的运行风险评估和决策辅助系统，并投入电网实际运行，能够实现检修方式下电网运行风险的高效准确评估，生成相应的风险控制策略，为调度运行人员提供可靠决策参考。
[Abstract]:Maintenance and repair of power equipment is an important work in the daily operation of power supply enterprises. During the period of maintenance, the redundancy of power network equipment decreases obviously, which increases the risk of power grid operation and brings more serious challenges to the security, stability and reliable power supply of the power supply system. This paper studies the risk assessment method of regional power network operation under maintenance mode, identifies objectively and accurately the influence of equipment maintenance on system operation risk, and on this basis, reduces the operational risk during the maintenance period in order to formulate the risk response strategy. It is of great significance. Under this premise, this paper has done the following work:. According to the risk characteristics of regional power network and maintenance mode, the corresponding operational risk index system and sub-system are first defined. The risk of the system is described by two dimensions of the area and node voltage loss and branch overload. Then, the risk assessment method of regional power network operation under overhaul mode is introduced, and the system state selection is realized by the state enumeration method. Then, the probability value of failure considering weather factor and equipment load rate factor is calculated. The risk consequence severity value is calculated synthetically by islanding detection and voltage loss analysis, and the operation analysis of the automatic throwing device is carried out. The methods of power flow calculation and N-1 power flow calculation based on sensitivity analysis make the results of risk assessment more efficient and accurate. Based on the comprehensive probability value and risk consequence, the system risk assessment is realized under the maintenance mode. The system state space and calculation scale are reduced by reducing the fault set by using the maintenance impact area location. The operation risk assessment under the maintenance mode of regional power grid aims to better understand the risks existing in the system, at the same time, analyze the causes of the risk changes, and grasp the law of the influence of equipment maintenance on the system risk. In order to provide decision support for system operators to take control measures to deal with risk changes, this paper adopts two methods: the optimal selection of load transfer scheme based on risk analysis and the risk control strategy of equipment overload considering load transfer. Change the risk of the system under the maintenance mode. The corresponding risk assessment and decision support system for regional power network is developed and put into actual operation, which can realize the efficient and accurate evaluation of the operation risk under the maintenance mode, and generate the corresponding risk control strategy. Provide reliable decision reference for dispatcher.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM732

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