城市中低压配电网规划的策略研究与应用

发布时间：2018-03-05 04:09

本文选题：城市中低压配电网　切入点：负荷预测　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市中低压配网规划是城市经济和社会发展的重要组成部分，其对于保证建设工程的技术合理性、提高社会效益和电力企业的经济效益有着重要意义。在早期的建设中,由于缺少资金的投入，我国城市中低压配网建设相对缓慢，滞后于城市的发展速度，而且中低压配网的建设改造没有进行科学的规划，基本是跟随用户的需求建设的。这些历史原因造成了目前中低压配电网存在着结构不合理、设备容量不足、供电可靠性低、自动化程度不高等问题，，严重影响了城市的发展和人民生活质量的提高。随着负荷的不断增长，这些问题将于加严重。因此进行城市中低压配电网规划及改造建设势在必行。本文以Y市城市中低压配电网为例展开如下研究：首先，在对规划的基础工作—负荷预测策略的研究中，提出了一种等维灰色—ELM神经网络负荷预测方法。该方法结合了等维灰色算法和一种新型神经网络（ELM神经网络）的优点，将等维灰色模型的预测值和影响负荷的主要因素作为ELM神经网络的输入，同时考虑了负荷的时间延续性和相关因素对负荷的非线性影响。算例表明该方法提高了预测的精度，用于中长期负荷预测是可行的。然后，研究了制定规划改建方案的两种策略：第一，针对城市中低压配电网问题多而投资资金有限的问题，提出了基于AHP的改建次序的策略。通过建立中压线路各指标改建紧急度的数学模型和AHP判断矩阵，计算出线路的改建紧急度，然后以计划资金为约束，按线路改建紧急度的大小确定优先改建的线路组合，此方法提高了配网现状问题解决次序决策的科学性。第二，研究了制定优化改建方案的策略，对于规划方案的制定具有指导意义。接着，根据Y市中低压配网现状存在问题和前文提出的规划策略，提出了Y市的中低压配电网规划方案。最后，对规划方案进行了评估，结果表明各项技术指标都达到了预期的目标，从而检验了研究成果的工程实用性；同时对Y市配电网下一步的建设与发展提出了建设性的意见，这将有助于规划成果的顺利落实和Y市城市配电网建设管理水平的近一步提高。全文对城市中低压配电网规划的策略进行了研究与实践应用，其思路和成果可为其它城市的中低压配网规划提供借鉴与案例参考。
[Abstract]:Urban low-voltage distribution network planning is an important part of urban economic and social development. It is of great significance to ensure the technical rationality of construction projects, improve social benefits and economic benefits of electric power enterprises. Due to the lack of capital investment, the construction of medium and low voltage distribution network in our country is relatively slow, which lags behind the speed of urban development, and the construction and transformation of medium and low voltage distribution network has not been scientifically planned. These historical reasons lead to unreasonable structure, insufficient capacity of equipment, low reliability of power supply, low degree of automation and so on. Has seriously affected the development of the city and the improvement of the quality of life of the people. These problems will be serious. Therefore, it is imperative to plan and rebuild the medium and low voltage distribution network. This paper takes Y City as an example to carry out the following research:. First of all, in the study of the basic working-load forecasting strategy of planning, a load forecasting method of equal dimension gray ELM neural network is proposed, which combines the advantages of equal dimension grey algorithm and a new neural network (ELM neural network). The prediction value of the equal dimensional grey model and the main factors affecting the load are taken as the input of the ELM neural network, and the time continuity of the load and the nonlinear influence of the related factors on the load are considered. An example shows that the method improves the accuracy of the forecasting. It is feasible to apply it to medium and long term load forecasting. Then, two strategies of planning and rebuilding are studied. First, the problem of medium and low voltage distribution network and limited investment funds are discussed. The strategy of reconstruction sequence based on AHP is put forward. By establishing mathematical model of rebuilding emergency degree of each index of medium voltage line and AHP judgement matrix, the reconstruction emergency degree of line is calculated, and then the planned funds are taken as constraint. The priority line combination is determined according to the emergency degree of line reconstruction. This method improves the scientific decision of solving the problem of distribution network status. Secondly, the strategy of optimizing reconstruction scheme is studied. For the planning of the formulation of a guiding significance. Then, according to the problems existing in the current situation of the medium and low voltage distribution network in Y city and the planning strategy put forward in this paper, the planning scheme of the medium and low voltage distribution network in Y city is put forward. Finally, the planning scheme is evaluated. The results show that all the technical indexes have reached the expected goal, thus testing the engineering practicability of the research results, and at the same time putting forward constructive suggestions on the next construction and development of the distribution network in Y city. This will contribute to the smooth implementation of the planning results and the further improvement of the construction and management level of Y city distribution network. This paper studies and applies the strategy of medium and low voltage distribution network planning in cities, and its ideas and achievements can be used for reference and case reference for other cities' middle and low voltage distribution network planning.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM715

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