计及预测误差相关性的风电出力不确定性集合建模与评估

发布时间：2018-03-13 17:13

本文选题：风电预测　切入点：不确定性建模　出处：《电力系统自动化》2014年18期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：先进的鲁棒调度技术是应对出力不确定性最经济、最有效的手段之一;而不确定性集合是刻画风电出力不确定性的基本形式,它不依赖于预测误差的具体分布形式,是制定风电鲁棒调度策略,进而保障系统安全经济运行的重要参考依据。首先,采用实际数据对现有不确定性集合建模方法进行了评估,指出在不确定性集合中若忽略风电预测误差的相关性将导致不合理的结果。在此基础上,基于广义椭球的一般表达式,提出了风电出力不确定性测度的概念,进而给出一种可以准确考虑风电预测误差相关性的不确定性集合建模方法。实际算例表明,在给定置信概率下,所提方法能够保证不确定性集合凸性,大幅压缩不确定性集合的测度,从而显著降低电力系统鲁棒优化决策的保守性。
[Abstract]:Advanced robust scheduling technology is one of the most economical and effective methods to deal with force uncertainty, and uncertainty set is the basic form of describing wind power output uncertainty, which does not depend on the specific distribution form of prediction error. It is an important reference basis for making robust dispatching strategy of wind power and ensuring the safe and economical operation of the system. Firstly, the existing uncertain set modeling method is evaluated by using the actual data. It is pointed out that ignoring the correlation of wind power prediction errors in uncertain sets will lead to unreasonable results. Based on the general expression of generalized ellipsoid, the concept of uncertainty measure of wind power output is proposed. Furthermore, an uncertain set modeling method which can accurately consider the correlation of wind power prediction error is presented. The practical examples show that the proposed method can guarantee the uncertainty set convexity under given confidence probability. The measure of uncertainty set is reduced greatly, and the conservatism of robust optimal decision in power system is reduced significantly.
【作者单位】：国网北京市电力公司电力科学研究院;电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室清华大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51007041,51321005) 北京电力公司科技项目(5202011304HH)~~
【分类号】：TM614

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