基于情景分析理论的微电网规划综合评价

发布时间：2018-03-14 20:08

本文选题：评价　切入点：微电网规划　出处：《燕山大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：微电网作为解决分布式电源(distributed generation,DG)大量集成接入对电力系统冲击的有力手段,具有清洁环保等优势和广阔的发展前景,是我国电力系统未来的发展趋势之一。微电网规划作为微电网建设的前提,其规划方案的好坏直接影响微电网的安全、可靠、经济和环保等多项运行指标,而且随着微电网渗透率的不断增加,会对大电网的稳定可靠运行带来巨大的影响。因此,在微电网规划工作完成后,通过微电网评价研究,对规划方案进行一个综合评估就显得尤为重要。本文建立了微电网规划评价指标体系,在此基础上提出了基于改进模糊综合评价方法的微电网规划综合评价模型和基于情景分析理论的微网规划动态评价模型。主要工作内容如下:首先,针对现存微网规划指标体系研究的缺陷,提出了针对微电网自身特性的网架结构指标,其中包括线路效用经济比、负荷电源位置匹配度、供电线路长度越线率、重要负荷供电可靠度以及电源选型选址匹配度指标,并且在此基础上梳理以往微网规划评价指标,建立了微网规划综合评价指标体系。其次,利用格罗布斯准则与博弈论原理对模糊综合评价方法进行了改进。使用格罗布斯准则对隶属参数中的偏差数据进行剔除,再利用博弈论原理对剩余的有效隶属参数进行融合。进一步利用改进的模糊综合评价方法建立了微网规划模糊综合评价模型,对三个微网规划方案进行评价,通过评价结果的对比,分析了三个方案的优劣。最后,建立了基于情景分析理论的微网规划动态评价模型,选取地区经济超预期发展、国家将采用新能源政策及微电网内部技术进步为三个影响因素,建立未来有可能发生的多个场景,并且在不同场景中对微电网规划方案进行评价。仿真结果表明该模型可以考虑到未来不确定因素对微电网的影响,避免了只考虑当下利益需求而忽视长远发展的综合效益,是微电网规划动态评价的有效方法。
[Abstract]:As a powerful means to solve the impact of distributed generation distributed generation (DG) on power system, microgrid has the advantages of clean and environmental protection, and has broad development prospects. Microgrid planning, as the premise of microgrid construction, has a direct impact on the safety, reliability, economy and environmental protection of microgrid. And with the increasing permeability of microgrid, it will have a great impact on the stable and reliable operation of large power grid. Therefore, after the completion of microgrid planning, the research on microgrid evaluation is carried out. It is very important to make a comprehensive evaluation of the planning scheme. In this paper, the evaluation index system of microgrid planning is established. On this basis, the comprehensive evaluation model of microgrid planning based on improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the dynamic evaluation model of micro-grid planning based on scenario analysis theory are proposed. The main work is as follows: first, In view of the shortcomings of the existing research on the index system of microgrid planning, the paper puts forward the grid structure index aiming at the characteristics of the microgrid, including line utility economy ratio, load power supply position matching degree, power supply line length crossing line rate, etc. The reliability of important load power supply and the matching index of power selection and location selection are analyzed. Based on these indexes, a comprehensive evaluation index system of microgrid planning is established. Secondly, a comprehensive evaluation index system of microgrid planning is established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is improved by using Gro Booth criterion and game theory principle, and the deviation data of membership parameters are eliminated by Gro Booth criterion. Then the remaining effective membership parameters are fused by the game theory principle, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of microgrid planning is established by using the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the three microgrid planning schemes are evaluated. Through the comparison of the evaluation results, the advantages and disadvantages of the three schemes are analyzed. Finally, a dynamic evaluation model of microgrid planning based on scenario analysis theory is established. The country will adopt the new energy policy and the technological progress within the microgrid as three influencing factors to establish a number of scenarios that may happen in the future. The simulation results show that the model can take into account the influence of future uncertain factors on microgrid and avoid considering the comprehensive benefits of long-term development. It is an effective method for dynamic evaluation of microgrid planning.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM715

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