基于流域梯级开发的水电工程项目后评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 07:11

本文选题：流域　切入点：梯级　出处：《中南大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：流域梯级水电工程项目在流域发电、防洪、灌溉、供水、航运、旅游、养殖等方面产生重要的社会效益和综合效益。流域梯级水电开发过程投入资金多、建设规模大、时间跨度长、影响范围广,对整个项目周期的决策工作有严格的要求。因此,充分积累流域项目开发经验,不断提高项目开发的决策水平和管理能力,是新时期我国实现流域社会、经济、生态环境可持续发展的关键因素。项目后评价旨在总结工程开发过程的经验教训,是提高项目科学决策能力、增加工程开发经验的重要途径。但是,当前缺乏从流域开发的角度对水电工程群的建设工作进行后评价理论和方法研究。针对该问题,论文在对国内外相关研究进行综述的基础上,结合流域水电开发的现实特征,梳理了流域水电工程后评价的基本理论和作用机制,然后由点及线,首先从水电项目的建设过程、发展目标、社会和生态环境影响四个方面,研究了流域水电开发的基本组成单元——单项水电工程后评价的指标体系和评价方法；其次,从梯级电站整体的效益视角,阐述了流域水电开发的经济和开发时序后评价的理论框架和评价模型；最后,结合以上的研究成果,以沅水流域水电开发项目为对象进行后评价实证分析,验证相关理论的科学性和方法的有效性。论文研究工作如下。 (1)梳理流域水电开发后评价的理论体系和作用机制。提出系统控制论和可持续发展的项目评价理论是流域水电工程后评价的两个基本理论,前者把整个项目管理视为一个系统,项目后评价是项目管理系统中重要的控制系统。后者要求项目建设要有利于可持续发展的目标,充分考虑经济、社会、生态环境的影响,达到决策目标的最大综合效益；构建水电项目后评价机制设计的基本原则,分析了项目后评价的监督控制作用,剖析了适合我国流域梯级水电工程项目的后评价三级管理机构体系管理和运行机制,设计了适合流域梯级水电工程项目的反馈流程图,其目的是通过理论分析,使后评价的成果能顺利地反馈到决策、设计、建设和运营单位,为项目的决策及建设起到控制作用和借鉴意义。 (2)流域梯级水电项目单项后评价理论和方法。从流域单项水电工程的建设过程、整体目标以及对社会、自然环境的影响四个维度进行后评价研究,对于具有动态控制作用的建设过程后评价,结合实际工程建设过程后评价控制作用,探讨了单项水电工程具有动态控制作用后评价的内容和评价方法,并建立了后评价指标体系；对于目标可持续后评价,梳理了流域梯级水电项目可持续性的研究范围、内涵、定义以及特征,提出了流域梯级水电项目目标可持续后评价的概念以及基本内容,从而构建指标评价体系；对于和谐发展观的社会影响评价,分析了其基本内容,并构建了指标体系,另外详细分析了项目与社会的适应性以及移民安置后评价等内容；对环境影响后评价研究中,构建了流域梯级水电项目生态环境的后评价指标体系,建立了生态环境影响后评价的物元—层次分析耦合模型。 (3)流域梯级水电项目经济效益后评价理论和方法。从国民经济后评价和财务后评价两个方面,深入探究了流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益内容、指标体系。针对流域梯级水电项目补偿效益的现实,将梯级补偿效益指标引入了总体经济后评价指标体系中,详细探讨了流域梯级水电项目补偿效益机理以及指标计算方法,并从三种分摊方式入手,深入剖析了流域梯级水电项目效益补偿分摊问题,给出三种分摊方式的计算方法；研究了基于DEA模型的流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益后评价,构建了流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益后评价的“静态分析—综合评价”的理论框架,建立了评价指标体系,提出了流域梯级水电项目总体经济后评价DEA模型。 (4)流域梯级水电项目开发时序后评价理论和方法。回顾了世界流域开发的基本方式,针对我国“流域、梯级、滚动、综合”开发的方针,运用结构模型解析(ISM)技术,分析出了流域梯级水电开发时序后评价的关键因素,探讨了小型、大中型流域开发利用的管理模式。阐述了模糊优选模型建模的基本理论,提出了基于模糊优选模型进行流域梯级水电开发时序后评价的模型。 (5)沅水流域开发项目后评价实证分析。简述了沅水流域水电开发基本情况；运用层次分析法结合专家打分方式,对沅水流域梯级水电工程过程进行后评价；在定性分析沅水水电工程的可持续影响因素基础上,评价了该工程目标可持续性；全面分析了沅水流域梯级水电开发社会环境影响因素；评价了该工程在发电、航运以及防洪对受益区的影响情况,并分析了该工程移民安置的情况；运用物元—层次分析模糊模型进行了沅水流域水电工程环境影响后评价；以“静态分析—综合评价”的两阶段评价的方式,运用DEA模型评价了梯级水电开发的总体经济效益；运用模糊优选模型,计算出该工程理想开发时序,结合工程实际开发情况,进行沅水流域梯级水电开发时序后评价。全面总结沅水流域梯级水电工程开发的主要结论,提出了相应的政策建议。论文通过对流域梯级水电项目后评价研究,探索了流域水电开发后评价的理论体系和作用机制,剖析了水电项目单项后评价的指标指标和评价方法,建立了流域梯级水电开发经济影响和开发时序后评价的基本理论和评价模型,实证评价了沅水流域开发项目。论文的研究工作对流域梯级水电项目后评价相关理论和应用研究起到了积极的推动作用。
[Abstract]:Abstract: cascade hydropower projects in the river basin flood control, power generation, irrigation, water supply, shipping, tourism, have important social benefits and comprehensive benefits of breeding. The hydropower development process of capital investment, large construction scale, long time span, wide range of influence, for the entire project cycle decision work strictly the requirements. Therefore, the accumulation of full basin project development experience, and constantly improve the project decision-making level and management ability, is the new period of China's social economy, realize the watershed, key factors of sustainable development of the ecological environment. To sum up experiences and lessons of the development process of engineering project post evaluation, is to improve the decision-making ability of science project, an important way to increase project development experience. However, the current lack of research on the theory and method of evaluation of Hydropower Engineering Group construction work from the watershed development perspective to solve this problem, The paper on the related research at home and abroad, combined with the practical characteristics of hydropower development, combing the basic theory and mechanism of basin hydropower project post evaluation, and then from the point and the line, first from the construction process of hydropower projects, development goals, social and environmental effects in four aspects of indicators system and evaluation method of single hydropower project post evaluation: basic unit of hydropower development; secondly, from the perspective of the overall benefit of the cascade hydropower stations, the theoretical framework and evaluation and expounds the economic development timing valley hydropower development evaluation model; finally, combining with the above research results, analysis in Yuanshui River Basin Hydropower Development project as the object of empirical evaluation, validation of scientific theory and method. The research work is as follows.
(1) the theory of the system and mechanism of combing river basin hydropower development evaluation. Put forward the theory of sustainable development system and control evaluation theory are two basic theory of basin hydropower project post evaluation, the whole project management as a system, project post evaluation is an important control system of project management system. The latter requires the project construction should be conducive to the goal of sustainable development, to fully consider the economic, social, ecological and environmental impact, the maximum comprehensive benefit to the decision goal; basic principles of evaluation mechanism design construction of hydropower project, analysis the function of supervision and control of project post evaluation, analyzes the evaluation of three level management institutions management system and operation mechanism suitable for China's hydropower project, designed for the feedback flow chart of cascade hydropower project, its purpose is through theoretical analysis, the The results of the evaluation can be successfully fed back to the decision-making, design, construction and operation units, which can play a control role and use for reference for the decision and construction of the project.
(2) the theory and method of monomial evaluation after the cascade hydropower project in the basin. From the construction process of single basin hydropower project, the overall objectives and the society, of the four dimensions of the post evaluation of the influence of natural environment, evaluation for construction process with dynamic control effect after the combination of the actual construction process post evaluation on control effect the content and evaluation methods of single hydropower project with dynamic control effect evaluation, and the establishment of the post evaluation index system for evaluation; the goal of sustainable, combing the research scope, the sustainability of cascade hydropower project connotation, definition and characteristics, put forward the concept of cascade hydropower project target basin sustainable post evaluation and basic content. In order to construct the evaluation index system; evaluation for the harmonious development of the society of view, analyzes its basic contents, and constructs the index system, in addition A detailed analysis of the project and the social adaptability and post resettlement evaluation and so on; the environmental impact assessment study, the evaluation index system of ecological environment construction of cascade hydropower project in the basin, the establishment of the ecological environment impact assessment of matter element analytic model.
(3) the theory and method of economic benefit of basin cascade hydropower project post evaluation. The two aspects of the evaluation from the national economy and finance, the in-depth study of the overall economic benefit of hydropower project in the basin, the index system. According to the compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project reality, will introduce the overall index of cascade compensation benefits of economic evaluation in the index system, discusses the calculation method of compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project and the index mechanism of river basin, and starting from the three allocation methods, in-depth analysis of the cascade hydropower project benefit compensation allocation problem, three kinds of methods to calculate the allocation; studied the evaluation based on the overall economic benefits of cascade hydropower project in DEA model after and build the overall economic benefits of cascade hydropower project after the watershed assessment framework "static analysis comprehensive evaluation, established evaluation indices The DEA model is proposed for the overall economic post evaluation of cascade hydropower projects in the basin.
(4) the theory and method of basin cascade hydropower project development timing evaluation. A review of the basic mode of development in our country in the world, "river, cascade, rolling, integrated development approach, analytic structural model (ISM) technology, analyzes the key factors of the cascade hydropower development timing evaluation, study the small, the management mode of development and utilization of large and medium sized basin. Expounds the basic theory of fuzzy optimization model, put forward the evaluation based on fuzzy optimization model of cascade hydropower development timing model.
(5) the empirical analysis and evaluation of Yuanshui river basin development project. The basic situation of hydropower development in Yuanshui River Basin; using AHP and expert scoring method of cascade hydropower project in Yuanshui River process post evaluation; qualitative analysis in the shadow of sustainable Yuanshui hydropower project on the basis of the influencing factors, the goal of the project sustainability evaluation; comprehensive analysis of the Yuanshui river basin hydropower development in the social environment factors; evaluation of the project in power generation, shipping and flood control effect on benefit area, and analyzes the project resettlement; AHP fuzzy model of hydropower project environmental impact evaluation of Yuanshui river basin after matter element; the two stage static analysis comprehensive evaluation "evaluation method, we use DEA model to evaluate the overall economic benefits of hydropower development; using the fuzzy optimization model, The ideal development timing of the project is calculated. Combined with the actual development of the project, post evaluation of cascade hydropower development in Yuanshui basin is carried out. The main conclusions of cascade hydropower development in Yuanshui basin are summarized, and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
The study on Evaluation of cascade hydropower project, exploring the theoretical system and the mechanism of river basin hydropower development evaluation, analysis of the hydropower project after the evaluation index of individual indicators and evaluation methods, established the basic theory and evaluation of cascade hydropower development and economic development impact timing evaluation model, empirical evaluation of the Yuanshui river river basin development project. The research work related theory and application research has played a positive role in promoting the cascade hydropower project post evaluation.

【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV51;F426.91;F426.61

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