输电线路工程施工风险分析与应用研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 22:17

本文选题：输电线路　切入点：风险管理　出处：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力行业是国民经济重要的基础产业,也是重要的公用事业。电力安全直接关系着国民经济的发展和人民生命财产安全,关系着国家安全和社会稳定。输电线路工程是输变电工程建设中的重要组成部分,与此同时输电线路工程具有高风险、事故频发的特征,容易导致人民生命财产的损失。因此,对输电线路工程施工进行风险管理具有非常重要的意义。论文以《输变电工程施工安全风险模型建立及应用》项目为依托,在查阅了国内外相关文献及工程资料的基础上,综合采用了理论研究和案例分析的方法,对输电线路工程的施工风险进行风险识别、风险分析、风险评价及风险控制研究。主要成果包括：(1)根据风险的最低合理可行原则,并结合国家相关规范,制定输电线路工程的风险接受准则。采用德尔菲法采集专家对各作业内容的风险发生概率等级及风险损失后果等级的评判,得出各作业内容风险等级,应用于输电线路固有风险分析。(2)在研究输电线路施工工艺基础上,结合专家经验,确定输电线路工程可能发生的事故。利用系统安全工程的理论和方法对这些事故进行分析,得到可能导致事故发生的各种风险因素,进而归纳得出输电线路工程风险辨识清单。(3)在所得风险辨识清单基础上,结合相关的法规、标准和已有的理论研究成果,构建风险评价指标体系；以德尔菲法采集所得专家意见为基础,对专家意见进行聚类处理,形成指标重要程度的“典型排序”表,进而采用“结构熵权法”确定各指标的权重值；引入模糊综合评价法,完成输电线路工程风险评价模型的构建。(4)以某220KV输变电工程为例,运用以上模型进行风险评价,在工程固有风险基础上进一步确定工程的实际风险,结果证明了模型的实际有效性。(5)分析每一风险因素的起因、特征、后果、外界影响因素等,以消除或控制风险因素为目的,结合相关理论研究成果、现场调查以及工程施工人员的经验,提出风险预控措施。论文研究取得的成果为输电线路工程的风险管理提供了思路,对整个输变电工程建设具有重要的理论价值和实际应用价值。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is an important basic industry of the national economy and also an important public utility. Power security is directly related to the development of the national economy and the safety of people's lives and property. Transmission line engineering is an important part of transmission and transformation project construction. At the same time, transmission line project has the characteristics of high risk and frequent accidents, which can easily lead to the loss of people's lives and property. It is very important to carry on the risk management to the transmission line engineering construction. Based on the project "Construction Safety risk Model Establishment and Application of Transmission and Transformation Engineering", this paper has consulted the relevant literature and engineering data at home and abroad. This paper synthetically adopts the methods of theoretical research and case analysis to identify, analyze, evaluate and control the construction risk of transmission line engineering. The main achievements include: 1) according to the principle of minimum, reasonable and feasible risk, Combined with the relevant national norms, the risk acceptance criteria of transmission line engineering are formulated. The Delphi method is used to collect experts' judgment on the risk occurrence probability grade and risk loss consequence grade of each operation content, and the risk level of each operation content is obtained. On the basis of studying the construction technology of transmission line, combined with the experience of experts, the possible accidents of transmission line engineering are determined. The theory and method of system safety engineering are used to analyze these accidents. Get all kinds of risk factors that may lead to the accident, and then conclude the transmission line project risk identification list. On the basis of the obtained risk identification list, combined with the relevant laws, standards and existing theoretical research results, Based on the expert opinions collected by Delphi method, the risk evaluation index system is constructed, and the expert opinions are clustered to form a "typical ranking" table of the importance of the indicators. Then the weight value of each index is determined by "structure entropy weight method", and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to complete the construction of risk assessment model of transmission line engineering. Taking a 220KV power transmission and transformation project as an example, the above model is used to carry out risk evaluation. On the basis of the inherent risk of the project, the actual risk of the project is further determined. The result shows that the actual validity of the model is to analyze the causes, characteristics, consequences, external influence factors of each risk factor, etc., in order to eliminate or control the risk factors. Combined with the related theoretical research results, field investigation and the experience of the project construction personnel, the paper puts forward the risk pre-control measures. The results obtained in this paper provide ideas for the risk management of transmission line engineering. It has important theoretical value and practical application value to the whole transmission and transformation project construction.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM752

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