基于随机性环境影响评估模型的电力消费和碳排放关系实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-29 13:14

本文选题：随机性环境影响评估模型　切入点：碳排放　出处：《电网技术》2014年03期

【摘要】：碳排放量、能源消费量、人口和经济增长存在着较为密切的关系,而作为清洁二次能源的电能,其消费使用量的多少影响着能源消费结构,进而影响着能源消费量。因此,电力消费强度和碳排放量之间存在着何种联系,是电力工业低碳之路需要考虑的问题。利用随机性环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology,STRIPAT),通过最小二乘回归方法测算碳排放量、人口、人均国民生产总值、电力消费量和能源消费量之间的碳排放影响系数。研究发现,人口、人均国民生产总值以及电力消费量和能源消费量之间的比值每发生1%的变化,将引起碳排放总量1.207%、0.901%以及?1.188%的变化,因此,在未来我国人口增长趋势放缓、国民经济保持7%以上较快发展的情况下,减少碳排放的途径应该从技术因素入手,通过提高电能占使用能源的比率、提高化石能源的使用效率和发展可再生能源来进行。
[Abstract]:Carbon emissions, energy consumption, population and economic growth are closely related, and as a clean secondary energy, the amount of its consumption affects the structure of energy consumption, and then affects energy consumption. The relationship between power consumption intensity and carbon emissions is a problem to be considered on the low-carbon road of power industry. Using stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology, carbon emissions are measured by least square regression method. The impact factor of carbon emissions between population, per capita GNP, electricity consumption and energy consumption. The study found that for every 1 percent change in population, per capita GNP and the ratio of electricity consumption to energy consumption, Will cause total carbon emissions of 1.207% and 0.901%? 1.18.8% change, therefore, in the future, the population growth trend of our country will slow down, and the national economy will maintain more than 7% rapid development. The way to reduce carbon emissions should start from technical factors and increase the ratio of electric energy to energy use. Improve the efficiency of fossil energy use and the development of renewable energy to be carried out.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学经济与管理学院;北京信息科技大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71071052,71071054) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(12QN27)~~
【分类号】：TM711

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