基于D-S证据理论的电网设备状态检修决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 16:08

本文选题：输变电设备　切入点：状态检修　出处：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：信息技术、微电子技术、网络通信技术等的发展为电力设备在线状态监测提供了良好的技术支撑,推动了状态检修技术的应用和发展。同时状态检修作为坚强智能电网建设和电网全寿命资产管理的重要组成部分,也成为电力企业科学发展的重点研究内容之一。状态检修是一种预测性维修,能够在设备性能下降到一定程度或故障将要发生之前及时、有针对性地安排好设备检修,能够有效缩短停电时间、延长设备经济寿命,同时降低检修成本、提高电网安全性和可靠性。状态检修一般包括状态监测、状态评估、检修决策三个环节,三者循序渐进,顺次进行。状态监测和状态评估是状态检修的前提和基础,检修决策是状态检修的核心和目标。因此,如何做好科学的检修决策是体现状态检修价值的关键。本文以状态检修决策为中心,开展了输变电设备状态检修决策研究,得到设备个体层面的最优检修方案；以此为基础,开展了电网状态检修决策研究,得到设备个体和电网整体综合最优的检修方案。提出一种基于D-S证据理论的输变电设备状态检修多属性群决策方法。新模型在建立的检修决策框架引导下,归纳了以效用、成本为一级指标的决策指标体系并给出量化方法；将这些相互独立的决策指标作为证据源,将依据状态检修导则划分的检修方式和基于设备健康状态的剩余预测寿命划分的检修时段组合形成的检修方案作为识别框架,通过D-S合成法则,得到综合指标作用下的群体决策意见,实现了输变电设备检修方式和检修时段的同时决策。算例表明通过对各个指标赋予决策者的主观权重并将指标综合权重分配到BPA值中,实现了决策者检修意愿的融合,并且可以根据决策者检修意愿调整相应指标的权重系数来控制和调整决策结果,决策结果使所有指标达到综合最优。考虑到设备之间、设备与电网之间的实时关联性,提出了电网状态检修概念和基于D-S证据理论的电网状态检修决策方法。首先归纳出电网状态检修决策的指导原则,并对所有待修设备在个体决策层面得到的可能检修方案依据原则进行组合与筛选,得到电网状态检修的可能方案集合,然后建立了能够全面反映电网整体运行的安全性、可靠性和经济性的决策指标,并给出量化方法。在上述指标的指导下,通过基于D-S证据理论的电网状态检修决策模型对电网状态检修可能方案进行决策寻优,得到设备个体与电网整体运行综合最优的检修方案。
[Abstract]:The development of information technology, microelectronics technology and network communication technology provides a good technical support for on-line condition monitoring of power equipment, and promotes the application and development of condition-based maintenance technology.At the same time, as an important part of smart grid construction and lifetime asset management, condition-based maintenance has also become one of the key research contents in the scientific development of electric power enterprises.Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is a kind of predictive maintenance. It can arrange the equipment maintenance timely before the equipment performance drops to a certain extent or the failure will occur. It can effectively shorten the blackout time and prolong the economic life of the equipment.At the same time, reduce the cost of maintenance, improve the security and reliability of the grid.Condition-based maintenance generally includes three links: condition monitoring, condition evaluation and maintenance decision, which are carried out step by step and sequentially.Condition monitoring and condition evaluation are the premise and foundation of condition based maintenance. Maintenance decision is the core and goal of condition based maintenance.Therefore, how to make scientific maintenance decision is the key to reflect the value of condition based maintenance.In this paper, based on the decision of condition-based maintenance (CBM), the research on condition-based maintenance of power transmission and transformation equipment is carried out, and the optimal maintenance scheme on individual level of equipment is obtained, based on which, the research of power network condition-based maintenance decision is carried out.A comprehensive and optimal overhaul scheme is obtained for both the individual equipment and the power grid.A multi-attribute group decision-making method based on D-S evidence theory for condition based maintenance of power transmission and transformer equipment is proposed.Under the guidance of the established maintenance decision framework, the new model induces the decision index system with utility and cost as the primary index and gives the quantitative method, and takes these independent decision indicators as the evidence source.The maintenance scheme, which is based on the maintenance mode divided according to the condition maintenance guidelines and the maintenance period based on the remaining life prediction of the equipment health condition, is taken as the identification framework, and the D-S synthesis rule is adopted.The group decision advice under the action of comprehensive index is obtained, and the maintenance mode and the maintenance period of transmission and transformation equipment are realized at the same time.The numerical examples show that the decision makers' willingness to overhaul can be merged by assigning the subjective weights to the decision-makers and assigning the comprehensive weights to the BPA value.And the weight coefficient of the corresponding index can be adjusted according to the decision maker's willingness to overhaul to control and adjust the decision result. The decision result makes all the indexes achieve the comprehensive optimum.Considering the real-time relationship between equipment and power network, the concept of power network condition-based maintenance and the decision-making method based on D-S evidence theory are proposed.Firstly, the guiding principles of power network condition based maintenance decision are summarized, and the possible maintenance schemes for all the equipment to be repaired are combined and screened according to the principles, and the set of possible network condition maintenance schemes is obtained.Then, a decision index which can reflect the safety, reliability and economy of the whole power network is established, and the quantitative method is given.Under the guidance of the above indexes, through the decision-making model based on D-S evidence theory, the possible scheme of power network condition-based maintenance (CBM) is optimized, and the comprehensive optimal maintenance scheme of the equipment and the whole operation of the power network is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73

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