大规模并网间歇性电源的容量可信度评估方法及其应用

发布时间：2018-04-05 00:22

本文选题：间歇性电源　切入点：容量可信度　出处：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前人类社会所面临的环境问题和能源危机日益严重。随着国家政策对清洁能源的有效激励和新能源技术的日益成熟,中国丰富的风能和太阳能资源逐渐得到开发,风电及光伏发电装机容量近年来持续增长。风电和光伏发电具有资源丰富、清洁可再生等优点,但受自然条件的影响,风力发电和光伏发电出力都具有随机性的特点,属于不可控的间歇性电源,并网后对电力系统的可靠性贡献与传统发电形式不同。容量可信度是衡量间歇性电源对电力系统可靠性贡献的重要指标,是在保持发电系统可靠性水平一致的情况下,间歇性电源所替代的常规机组的装机容量。客观地评估大规模间歇性电源的容量可信度才能更加准确地评价间歇性电源的对电力系统可靠性影响及其综合经济效益,对并网系统的长期电源规划具有重大意义。本文首先介绍了风电和光伏发电等间歇性电源的发展现状及容量可信度的基本概念,重点说明了当前风电及光伏容量可信度的评估标准和计算方法及电力系统可靠性计算方法,明确了本文的研究内容。其次,本文基于Copula函数提出了考虑出力相关性的多风电场的容量可信度评估方法。在对实际风电场进行出力相关性分析的基础上,采用Clayton Copula函数描述空间相邻的风电场的出力相关性,构建多风电场出力的联合概率分布模型,在此基础上提出多风电场的容量可信度评估方法。再次,本文提出了考虑光伏出力特点及其与负荷相关关系的光伏发电容量可信度评估方法。分析了光伏日出力的小时特点,对光伏电站出力和负荷曲线进行时段分解,对应时段结合形成等效负荷曲线计算含光伏电站的系统可靠性水平,提出了光伏发电约束可信容量的概念,建立了光伏发电容量可信度评估模型。最后,本文将间歇性电源容量可信度的计算应用到评估风电-光伏发电联合系统的综合效益中。分析了风电和光伏发电两种间歇性电源出力的互补特性,基于Frank Copula函数建立了风光系统的出力联合概率分布,对风光联合系统的容量可信度进行了评估。以间歇性电源的电量效益、环境效益和容量效益为基础构建了风光联合系统的综合效益评估模型。
[Abstract]:At present, the environmental problems and energy crisis facing human society are becoming more and more serious.With the effective incentives of national policies to clean energy and the maturation of new energy technologies, China's abundant wind and solar resources have been gradually developed, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation has been increasing in recent years.Wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation have the advantages of rich resources, clean and renewable, but under the influence of natural conditions, wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation have the characteristics of randomicity, which is an uncontrollable intermittent power supply.The reliability contribution to power system after grid connection is different from that of traditional power generation.Capacity reliability is an important index to measure the contribution of intermittent power supply to power system reliability. It is the installed capacity of conventional units replaced by intermittent power supply under the condition of keeping the same level of power system reliability.Only by objectively evaluating the capacity reliability of large-scale intermittent power supply can we evaluate more accurately the impact of intermittent power supply on the reliability of power system and its comprehensive economic benefits, which is of great significance to the long-term power planning of grid-connected power system.This paper first introduces the development of intermittent power supply, such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and the basic concept of capacity reliability. The emphasis is put on the evaluation standard and calculation method of wind power and photovoltaic capacity reliability, as well as the reliability calculation method of power system.The research content of this paper is clarified.Secondly, based on the Copula function, a capacity reliability evaluation method for multi-wind farms considering force correlation is proposed.On the basis of the correlation analysis of the actual wind farm, the Clayton Copula function is used to describe the correlation of the wind farm with adjacent space, and the joint probability distribution model of the multi-wind farm output is constructed.On this basis, a capacity reliability evaluation method for multi-wind farms is proposed.Thirdly, this paper proposes a method to evaluate the reliability of photovoltaic generation capacity considering the characteristics of photovoltaic output and its relationship with load.The hourly characteristics of photovoltaic sunrise force are analyzed, and the output and load curves of photovoltaic power station are decomposed in the time period. The reliability level of the system with photovoltaic power station is calculated by combining the equivalent load curve with the corresponding time period.In this paper, the concept of constrained trusted capacity of photovoltaic power generation is proposed, and the reliability evaluation model of photovoltaic power generation capacity is established.Finally, the reliability calculation of intermittent power supply capacity is applied to evaluate the comprehensive benefit of wind and photovoltaic power generation system.The complementary characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic power supply are analyzed. Based on the Frank Copula function, the joint probability distribution of wind system is established, and the reliability of the wind system is evaluated.Based on the power efficiency, environmental benefit and capacity benefit of intermittent power supply, a comprehensive benefit evaluation model of wind and wind joint system is established.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM61

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