基于风电注入功率概率模型的风电与电网协调规划研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 09:06

本文选题：风电注入功率模型 + 电网协调规划　；参考：《山东大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：风电是洁净的可再生能源,大力开发可再生能源是合理调整电源结构的需要,是我国能源发展战略的重要组成部分,风能已成为当前利用规模最大、技术成熟度最高的可再生能源形式之一。风电的随机性和间歇性,决定了它必须由常规能源配合来满足电网连续供电的要求,应在电网规划的总体框架内纳入统一规划,有序进行。本文从风电注入功率模型、提高风电消纳的能力措施与机制以及风电与电网协调规划三个方面开展研究取得了一定的成果。风电功率的预测方法,并对风电出力的多时空尺度波动特性进行了分析和对基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测和风电场出力的纵向时刻概率分布特性进行了研究的基础上,本章提出了一种新的分析风电出力概率分布特征的方法。基于实测数据,对风电场在一年时间内每天的特定时间点处有功出力及有功出力变化率进行统计,得到对应时间点的概率分布结果。并对所提的风电出力的纵向时刻概率分布函数适用性进行了校验,效果良好。利用电动汽车的负荷特性及其接入电网技术与风电相协调来提高风电消纳能力的方法和提出了考虑风电场储能系统适应电网调度决策的储能容量优化计算模型；该模型以适应电网调度运行计划的风电场输出功率时段参考值为基础,同时计及风电场弃风能量与储能系统损失能量的影响,以储能投资成本及风电系统运行成本最小为目标函数,建立基于蓄电池储能系统的储能容量优化决策模型,并应用改进的粒子群算法进行求解。该方法使得经过储能系统作用输出的风电功率实现分时段平滑输出,以此实现储能系统与现有调度运行方式的有效衔接,同时达到最佳经济效益。考虑大规模风电接入电网的电网规划模型及输电网协调规划算法。并在18节点系统上进行了仿真,通过算例仿真分析可知该方法考虑了如未来发电的不确定性,风电出力的波动性以及负荷的不确定性等更多的不确定性的信息,兼顾了规划方案的安全性和经济性。求解时利用遗传算法搜索,按照给定的N-1静态安全过载概率值,所得规划方案在未来的不确定性环境下更具灵活性和适应性。基于风电注入功率概率模型的电网规划软件应用,该软件由输电网规划程序和规划方案评价程序两部分构成。采用改进遗传算法作为核心寻优方法实现输电网的规划,采用基于层次分析法约束锥的数据包络分析法对规划方案进行评价。可以实现含风电的输电网规划和规划方案的评价,操作简便,实用。
[Abstract]:Wind power is a clean renewable energy, vigorously develop renewable energy is the need to adjust the power supply structure, is an important part of China's energy development strategy, has become the largest wind energy utilization, technology maturity is the highest form of renewable energy. One of the randomness and intermittence of wind power, decided it must be made of conventional energy with the continuous power supply to meet the requirements of the power grid, should be in the general framework of power grid planning in included in the unified planning and orderly. The wind power injection model, improve the wind power utilization capacity measure and mechanism of wind power and power grid planning and coordination of three aspects to carry out research and achieved certain results. The prediction method of wind power the multi time scale and fluctuation characteristics of wind power output are analyzed and based on time series and neural network method to predict wind power and wind power. The longitudinal moment distribution characteristics were studied on the basis of this chapter proposes a new method of analysis of wind power output probability distribution. Based on the measured data, the specific time point for the wind farm in a year's time every day at the active power output and output power of the rate of change of statistics, probability distribution results of the corresponding time the point of wind power output. And the longitudinal moment of the probability distribution function is verified, the effect is good. The load characteristics of electric vehicle and grid connected wind power technology and coordination method to improve the absorptive capacity of wind power and considering wind farm energy storage system to meet the power dispatching decision storage capacity optimization calculation model is used; the model to adapt to the wind power grid dispatching operation period plan reference value basis, considering wind energy and energy storage system. Effects of loss of energy, the storage cost of investment and the minimum wind power system operation cost as objective function, a battery energy storage system energy storage capacity optimization decision model based on the improvement and application of the particle swarm algorithm. This method makes the energy storage system of wind power output time to achieve smooth output. In order to achieve effective convergence of energy storage system and the existing scheduling operation mode, and achieve the best economic benefits. Large scale wind power grid transmission network planning model and coordinated planning algorithm. And the simulation is conducted on a 18 node system, the simulation analysis shows that this method is considered as the future generation of uncertainty. The wind power output fluctuation and load uncertainty and more uncertain information, taking into account the safety and economy of the planning scheme. Using genetic algorithm to solve The search, according to the N-1 static security overload probability values, the planning scheme has more flexibility and adaptability in the future uncertain environment. The application of power network planning software based on the probability model of wind power injection, the software from the planning process and transmission planning scheme on two part program using the improved genetic algorithm as the core. The optimization method of transmission network planning method to evaluate the planning scheme analysis using data envelopment analysis hierarchy process. Based on the constraint cone can realize the evaluation, including wind power transmission network planning and the planning scheme is simple, practical.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM614;TM715

【参考文献】