大规模新能源发电容量可信度研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 11:21

本文选题：风电场 + 光伏电站　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：常规能源短缺以及应用过程中对环境的污染问题使得新能源越来越受到人们的广泛关注,其中风能和太阳能是新能源中最具有应用前景的两种。风力发电与光伏发电同常规能源发电形式相同,都能提供一定的可信容量,对系统可靠性带来一定的贡献；但同时,两种形式的新能源发电都具有随机性和波动性的特点,大规模并网后也会对系统的稳定运行带来不利的影响。因此有必要对大规模新能源并网后的可靠性以及容量可信度问题进行研究。本文首先建立了风电场和光伏电站的发电模型,应用威布尔分布法并结合尾流效应模型模拟风电场的风速,应用Beta分布模拟光照强度,建立了风电场以及光伏电站的发电模型,并给出这两种新能源每小时输出功率的计算方法。其次从蒙特卡洛仿真原理出发,对比了序贯蒙特卡洛方法以及非序贯蒙特卡洛方法的适用范围,采用序贯蒙特卡洛方法,建立了含新能源的发输电系统可靠性评估模型,对含有风电场和光伏电站这两种新能源的发输电系统进行可靠性评估。应用Matlab编写程序,将风电场以及光伏电站接入IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统中进行可靠性指标的计算。对比了接入新能源容量的不同以及接入节点位置的不同对系统可靠性的影响；同时对比了风光同时接入系统与单独接入系统对可靠性的影响。在前两部分内容的基础上,对新能源的容量可信度问题进行研究,以有效载荷能力作为基础,提出了新能源容量可信度的定义以及计算方法。结合序贯蒙特卡洛仿真,采用弦截法,以IEEE-RTS79标准测试系统为例,对风电场以及光伏电站的容量可信度进行评估,并对结果进行分析。通过算例计算,评估了风电场以及光伏电站接入系统后的可靠性及其容量价值,对新能源的规划问题有一定的参考作用。
[Abstract]:The problem of environmental pollution and the shortage of conventional energy in the process of application of new energy makes people pay more and more attention, including wind and solar are two of the most promising new energy. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation with conventional energy generation form is the same, can provide reliable capacity, bring some contribution to the reliability of the system; but at the same time, two kinds of new energy power generation has the characteristics of randomness and volatility, large-scale grid will also have adverse effects on stable operation of the system. Therefore, it is necessary to study the large-scale new energy grid capacity reliability and credibility.
This paper established a model of wind power generation and photovoltaic power plants, wind speed application of Weibull distribution method combined with the wake effect model of wind farm, the application of Beta to simulate the distribution of light intensity, wind farm is established and photovoltaic power generation model, the calculating method of two kinds of new energy power output per hour was given. Secondly from Monte Carlo simulation principle, the scope of comparative sequential Monte Carlo method and non sequential Monte Carlo method, sequential Monte Carlo method, established the new energy power generation and transmission system reliability evaluation model to evaluate the reliability of power system containing wind and photovoltaic power stations of the two new energy. The application of Matlab program. The wind and photovoltaic power station access IEEE-RTS79 reliability test system reliability index calculation. Comparing the access of new energy capacity The different location and different access node on the reliability of the system; at the same time affect the scenery at the same time access system and separate access system on the reliability comparison. On the basis of the first two parts, research capacity credibility problem for new energy, in order to effectively load capacity as the basis, put forward the definition of new energy capacity credit and the calculation method. Combined with the sequential Monte Carlo simulation, using the secant method, based on IEEE-RTS79 standard test system as an example, to evaluate the capacity of wind and photovoltaic power plant reliability, and the results were analyzed.
The reliability and capacity value of the wind farm and photovoltaic power station after the access to the system are evaluated through calculation example, which has a certain reference function for the planning of new energy.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM61

【参考文献】