基于回归分析的电网运行维护费合理性评估

发布时间：2018-04-26 01:35

本文选题：电网运行维护费 + 影响因素分析　；参考：《电力系统自动化》2014年13期

【摘要】：电网运行维护费是输配电成本的重要组成部分,为了科学测算输配电价格,需要准确合理的成本数据。但国内各省级电网运行维护费之间差异较大,难以按统一标准或分类标准来判定其合理性。文中基于回归分析理论,提出一种评估电网运行维护费合理性的方法。首先进行电网运行维护费的影响因素分析,筛选出主要影响因素;其次提取主成分消除各影响因素之间的多重相关性;然后对电网运行维护费与主成分进行回归分析,得到省级电网运行维护费的统计规律;最后利用肖维勒准则来评估电网企业上报的运行维护费数据的合理性。以27个省级电网企业的实际数据进行算例分析,结果表明该方法有效可行。
[Abstract]:Maintenance fee is an important part of transmission and distribution cost. In order to calculate the price of transmission and distribution scientifically, accurate and reasonable cost data are needed. However, there are great differences between the maintenance fees of the provincial power network in China, so it is difficult to judge the rationality according to the unified standard or classification standard. Based on the theory of regression analysis, this paper presents a method to evaluate the reasonableness of maintenance fee. Firstly, the main influencing factors are selected by analyzing the influencing factors of power network operation and maintenance fee. Secondly, the main components are extracted to eliminate the multiple correlation among the influencing factors. Then, the regression analysis is carried out between the maintenance fee and the principal component of the power network. The statistical rule of the maintenance fee of provincial power network is obtained. Finally, the rationality of the operating maintenance fee data reported by the power grid enterprises is evaluated by using the Shauvier criterion. The actual data of 27 provincial power grid enterprises are analyzed and the results show that this method is effective and feasible.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院;国网北京密云供电公司;
【分类号】：TM732

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