基于条件成本收益分析的长期备用规划与决策

发布时间：2018-05-02 22:22

本文选题：条件可靠性收益 + 条件成本收益分析　；参考：《中国电机工程学报》2014年31期

【摘要】：备用容量规划对电力系统的异常状态和极端损失情形敏感,而传统的基于整体均值的可靠性成本和收益不能反映决策者对高损失低概率事件的特别关注。将条件可靠性成本和收益的概念引入长期备用规划问题,在决策者关心的损失范围内进行条件成本收益分析,得到的条件最优备用容量能够反映决策者的风险偏好和经验。进行接受裕度校验,从条件总成本的角度确认是否接受最优备用容量,以及接受或拒绝该方案的确信程度。基于序贯蒙特卡罗模拟计算条件可靠性收益,进而求解模型。对IEEE-RTS79的算例分析表明:决策者的风险偏好对备用容量的规划有显著影响,随着关注的损失范围由整体平均转向极端不利,系统对备用容量的需求持续上升。
[Abstract]:Standby capacity planning is sensitive to the abnormal state and extreme loss of power system, but the traditional reliability cost and income based on the overall mean can not reflect the special concern of decision makers on high loss and low probability events. The concept of conditional reliability cost and benefit is introduced into the long-term reserve planning problem, and the conditional cost-benefit analysis is carried out within the range of loss concerned by the decision maker. The optimal reserve capacity can reflect the risk preference and experience of the decision maker. An acceptance margin check is performed to confirm whether the optimal standby capacity is accepted from the point of view of the total conditional cost and the degree of confidence that the scheme is accepted or rejected. Based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation, the conditional reliability income is calculated, and then the model is solved. The case study of IEEE-RTS79 shows that the risk preference of decision makers has a significant impact on the reserve capacity planning. With the loss range changing from the overall average to the extreme disadvantage, the system demand for reserve capacity continues to rise.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学电气工程学院;中国电力科学研究院;广州供电局有限公司;
【基金】：国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A103) 国家电网公司“千人计划”专项支持项目~~
【分类号】：TM732

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