电网风险评估快速抽样方法及系统实现

发布时间：2018-05-04 18:03

本文选题：风险评估 + 蒙特卡罗方法　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着现代化电网的发展,电网运行过程的不确定性问题愈发突出,使用风险分析方法定量地评估电网运行中的不确定因素,并制定相应的风险控制策略,对电力系统的安全稳定具有重要意义。电网风险评估的基本方法有解析法和蒙特卡罗法两种,其中蒙特卡罗法的抽样次数与系统规模无关,适合应用于大型电网的风险评估,但其主要不足之处在于计算时间和计算精度的相关性,即为了获得精度较高的可靠性指标,往往需要很长的抽样模拟时间。鉴于风险评估系统实用程序中对于评估速度越来越高的要求,研究抽样方法及其相关环节的改进以提高系统的计算效率,已成为一个具有一定理论意义和应用价值的研究课题。本文首先介绍了风险评估解析法和蒙特卡罗法的主要内容,在此基础上详细说明蒙特卡罗非序贯抽样方法应用于电网风险评估的详细步骤,以及如何建立评估所需的故障概率模型、风险指标体系等。由于蒙特卡罗法的抽样次数与精度成反比,本文对蒙特卡罗抽样和相关分析环节进行了改进优化,提出了结合预想故障集的改进等分散抽样法,使其在保持精度的条件下拥有更高的抽样效率。最后,基于Visual C#.NET平台开发了省级电网风险评估软件,实现了实体化系统算法理论的改进,最后用该省电网的原始数据进行了算例测试,验证了算法的可用性和效率的提升。
[Abstract]:With the development of modern power grid, the uncertainty of power network operation is becoming more and more serious. The risk analysis method is used to quantitatively evaluate the uncertain factors in power grid operation, and the corresponding risk control strategy is formulated. It is of great significance to the safety and stability of power system. There are two basic methods for power network risk assessment: analytical method and Monte Carlo method. The sampling times of Monte Carlo method are independent of the system size, so it is suitable for the risk assessment of large power grid. But its main deficiency lies in the correlation between calculation time and calculation precision, that is, in order to obtain the reliability index with high precision, it often needs a long sampling simulation time. In view of the increasing demand for the evaluation speed in the practical program of risk assessment system, it has become a research topic with certain theoretical significance and application value to study the improvement of sampling method and its related links to improve the calculation efficiency of the system. This paper first introduces the main contents of the analytical method of risk assessment and the Monte Carlo method, and then explains the detailed steps of applying Monte Carlo non-sequential sampling method to power network risk assessment. And how to establish the fault probability model, risk index system and so on. Because the sampling times of Monte Carlo method are inversely proportional to the precision, the Monte Carlo sampling and correlation analysis are improved and optimized in this paper, and an improved equal-dispersion sampling method combined with the expected fault set is proposed. It has higher sampling efficiency under the condition of maintaining precision. Finally, the provincial power network risk assessment software is developed based on Visual C#.NET platform, which realizes the improvement of the materialized system algorithm theory. Finally, an example is tested using the original data of the provincial power grid to verify the availability and efficiency of the algorithm.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73

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