基于可拓层次分析法的火电建设工程项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 23:23

本文选题：火电建设工程项目 + 风险评价　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的稳速发展，电力行业作为经济发展的先行者，其需求要与经济的增长相适应，才能保持这种稳定快速的发展趋势。火电作为电能生产的重要组成部分，不论是发电量还是设备容量，都占有很大的比重。火电建设工程项目开发是资金密集型的产业，特别是百万机组火电项目，其投资资金巨大、周期长、技术复杂，面临的风险较多，风险所致损失也较大。但是，我国火电建设工程项目的风险评价比较落后，没有形成一套系统地、理论的防范体系。因此，针对目前我国火电建设工程项目的实际情况，构建并逐步完善符合火电行业的风险管理体系，对火电建设工程项目进行风险评价研究对于未来火电工程项目的发展具有重要的意义。本文首先介绍了火电建设工程项目的发展现状和其风险的主要来源，在此基础上，针对火电建设工程项目的特性，对其进行全寿命周期的风险识别。以火电建设工程项目为研究对象，对其进行详细全面的风险评价研究，从经济风险、技术风险、市场风险、管理风险四个方面建立火电建设工程项目风险评价指标体系，运用可拓理论和层次分析法相结合的方法构建火电建设工程项目风险评价模型。最后，，利用构建的火电建设工程项目风险评价模型对某一火电建设工程项目进行实例分析，而后对其工程项目评价出的风险等级进行分析，提出相对应的风险控制策略，从而为我国火电建设工程项目风险评价研究提供一定的理论依据和方法的参考。
[Abstract]:With the steady development of our country's economy, the electric power industry, as the forerunner of economic development, needs to keep up with the economic growth in order to maintain this stable and rapid development trend. As an important part of electric energy production, thermal power takes a large proportion in both power generation and equipment capacity. Thermal power construction project development is a capital-intensive industry, especially one million units of thermal power project, its investment capital is huge, the period is long, the technology is complex, the risk is more, the risk causes the loss is also big. However, the risk evaluation of thermal power construction projects in China is relatively backward, and has not formed a systematic, theoretical prevention system. Therefore, in view of the actual situation of thermal power construction projects in our country, the risk management system in line with the thermal power industry should be constructed and gradually perfected. The research on the risk evaluation of thermal power construction project is of great significance to the development of thermal power project in the future. This paper first introduces the present situation of thermal power construction projects and the main sources of their risks. On this basis, the risk identification of the whole life cycle of thermal power construction projects is carried out according to the characteristics of thermal power construction projects. Taking the thermal power construction project as the research object, the risk evaluation index system of the thermal power construction project is established from four aspects: economic risk, technical risk, market risk and management risk. The risk evaluation model of thermal power construction project is constructed by using extension theory and AHP. Finally, the risk evaluation model of thermal power construction project is used to analyze an example of a thermal power construction project, and then the risk grade of the project is analyzed, and the corresponding risk control strategy is put forward. Therefore, it can provide some theoretical basis and method reference for the risk evaluation research of thermal power construction project in China.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM611

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