序贯蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异分析

发布时间：2018-05-10 08:39

本文选题：电力系统可靠性评估 + 序贯蒙特卡洛法　；参考：《电网技术》2014年05期

【摘要】：分析比较了元件状态持续时间采样(state duration sampling,SDS)和等时间间隔采样(time interval sampling,TIS)2种常用序贯蒙特卡洛仿真方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异。针对SDS方法执行效率低但精度高,而TIS方法计算速度快但精度不足的特点,提出通过选择合适的采样间隔,并采用修正系数对与采样次数直接有关的电力不足持续时间(LOLD)指标进行修正,来改善TIS方法的仿真精度和计算速度。IEEE-RTS79测试系统的仿真结果验证了所提方法的有效性,并且表明修正后的TIS方法在系统故障率增加时效率优势更加明显。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes and compares the application differences of two common sequential Monte Carlo simulation methods in power system reliability evaluation, such as component state duration sampling and equal-time interval sampling. In view of the low efficiency and high precision of SDS method, and the high speed and low precision of TIS method, it is proposed to select the appropriate sampling interval. In order to improve the simulation accuracy and calculation speed of the TIS method, the validity of the proposed method is verified by the simulation results of the test system IEEE-RTS79, which is directly related to the sampling number. It also shows that the efficiency advantage of the modified TIS method is more obvious when the failure rate of the system increases.
【作者单位】：浙江大学电气工程学院;国网上海市电力公司奉贤供分公司;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)(2013CB228206) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177143) 浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LZ12E07002)~~
【分类号】：TM732

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