多能源微电网系统的负荷预测及优化运行研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 00:02

本文选题：微电网 + 负荷预测　；参考：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年,由于能源的日益紧缺,多能源微电网逐向全国范围的推广,因此多能源微电网的优化运行也成为了科学研究的一个热门研究方向。而对于多能源微电网系统的优化运行而言,影响优化结果的因素有很多,包括多能源组成单元的发电特性和对微电网的负荷预测和优化算法的选择,其中优化算法的研究是实现多能源微电网优化运行最重要问题之一。本论文以东北大学和国网辽宁省电力有限公司合作的交互智能配用电关键技术与系统装置研发项目,以及和辽宁电能发展股份有限公司合作的风光储交直流微电网电力调控系统研发项目为研究基础,以包含风力发电机、光伏电池、微型燃气轮机、蓄热器和蓄电池多种供能和储能单元的微电网为研究目标,在环境因素所造成的供需约束均不确定的情况下,努力得到各个供能设备最优运行方案的确定解,并通过仿真结果验证,所得方案满足绝大多数环境条件和系统运行的经济性要求。本文主要完成了以下几个方面的工作：(1)通过对微电网各发电单元和储能单元的特性研究,建立各设备的功能模型,为后期建立系统功能约束做准备。(2)对研究对象的电热负荷数据进行整理分析,对研究对象的负荷特性进行分析,了解该研究对象的负荷特征,建立基于生产计划和气象信息的负荷特征向量和负荷预测模型。(3)研究结合灰色关联分析和多元线性回归预测的负荷预测方法,并应用所取得基础数据进行仿真计算,以验证所提出算法的预测精度。所得预测结果将作为多能源微电网的优化运行中负荷约束部分数据基础。(4)提出多能源微电网的整体优化模型,建立系统的目标函数和供能约束条件。(5)为解决约束条件中因环境因素所造成的不确定性问题,本文提出了将灰色理论与多目标线性规划方法相结合,提出了灰色多目标线性规划算法,并通过仿真计算给出了多能源微电网的经济运行方案,为多能源微电网的优化运行提供了新的解决方案和理论支撑。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the increasing shortage of energy, multi-energy microgrid is popularized one by one across the country, so the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid has become a hot research direction of scientific research. For the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid system, there are many factors that affect the optimization results, including the generation characteristics of multi-energy components and the load forecasting and optimization algorithm selection of micro-grid. The research of optimization algorithm is one of the most important problems to realize the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid. In this paper, the key technology and system device of interactive intelligent distribution and power supply is developed by Northeast University and Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd. As well as the R & D project of the wind-storage AC / DC microgrid power control system in cooperation with Liaoning Electric Energy Development Co., Ltd., which includes wind turbines, photovoltaic cells, and micro gas turbines. The microgrid of heat accumulator and storage battery for various energy supply and storage units is the research goal. Under the condition that the supply and demand constraints caused by environmental factors are all uncertain, we try to obtain the definite solution of the optimal operation scheme of each energy supply equipment. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme meets most of the environmental conditions and the economic requirements of the system. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1) by studying the characteristics of each generation unit and energy storage unit in microgrid, the functional model of each equipment is established. Preparation for the later establishment of system functional constraints. (2) sorting out and analyzing the electrothermal load data of the research object, analyzing the load characteristics of the research object, and understanding the load characteristics of the research object. The load characteristic vector and load forecasting model based on production plan and meteorological information are established. The method of load forecasting combined with grey correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression forecasting is studied, and the simulation calculation is carried out using the obtained basic data. In order to verify the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm. The predicted results will be taken as the partial data basis of load constraint in the optimal operation of multi-energy microgrid. (4) the overall optimization model of multi-energy microgrid is proposed. In order to solve the problem of uncertainty caused by environmental factors in the constraint conditions, the grey theory is combined with the multi-objective linear programming method. A grey multi-objective linear programming algorithm is proposed, and the economic operation scheme of multi-energy microgrid is given by simulation, which provides a new solution and theoretical support for the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM727

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