考虑台风天气影响的风电可靠性建模研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 23:04

本文选题：台风 + 风电　；参考：《广西大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国逐步开始在沿海地区建设风电场。台风天气作为一种特殊的气象情况,可能对沿海风电场造成严重影响。由于台风瞬时风速往往较高,甚至达到50m/s以上,可能给风电机组结构施加巨大的风载荷效应,造成叶片损坏等问题。同时,台风风速变化波动大,可能造成风电机组突然停机,’系统突然失去大量电源。此外,台风可能造成风吹异物至导线或树枝倒伏于线路上,造成高压输电线路的跳闸或故障。因此,有必要量化分析台风这种极端天气对风电场输出功率的影响,从而从系统角度,分析其对系统运行可靠性的影响大小。本文首先采用Batts风场模型、YanMeng风场模型以及Shapiro等几种不同的风场模型对历史台风Wayne及黑格比的台风风速进行模拟,选择出计算速度较快、精度较适宜的台风风场模型。根据本文的分析可知,YanMeng风场模型的精度较高,计算速度较适宜,可采用该模型对台风风速进行模拟与复现。在此基础上,根据《西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集》中的历史台风记录,以广东某实际风电场为模拟点,拟合出该模拟点的台风参数分布模型并形成不同的台风风速模拟序列。通过对该模拟点分析可知,约有65-70%的热带气旋可能促使风电场发电量增加,而有30-35%的台风可能造成风电机组的大规模脱网事件,建议风电场控制人员及时采取相应的控制策略。结合该风电场风机的实际布局情况,利用风功率曲线求解出台风天气下各风电机组的输出功率。最后,以可靠性测试系统RTS79为算例,研究台风条件下电力系统的短期可靠性,为台风天气下电力系统的调度、风险控制进行数据依托。分析结果表明：台风天气将造成系统短期可靠性水平大幅度降低,即使在某些时段,风电场的发电量增加促使系统可靠性略有提升,但是台风造成线路故障率成倍增加。当台风风速处于7级风速以上时,将导致系统可靠性降低,而但台风风速处于6级风速及以下时,系统可靠性水平略有提升。此外,在同等风速条件下,随着风电装机容量越大,系统切负荷概率越低。当风电渗透率为0.9032%,系统切负荷概率降低0.4215%；当风电渗透率为8.1284%,系统切负荷概率降低1.6156%。即当风电渗透率位于0.9032%～8.1284%之间时,风电渗透率越大,系统可靠性越高。而当风电渗透率达9.032%时,在单个节点接入容量超出线路传输容量限制使得系统潮流发生变化,系统可靠性降低。当系统中的发电备用逐渐降低,系统的可靠性水平也逐渐降低。当系统固有发电容量不足时,系统有较大概率维持在原有系统状态下,从而使得系统切负荷概率近似为1。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has gradually begun to build wind farms in coastal areas. Typhoon weather, as a special meteorological condition, may have a serious impact on coastal wind farms. Because the instantaneous wind speed of typhoon is usually higher, even more than 50m/s, the wind load effect may be exerted on the structure of wind turbine and the blade damage may be caused. At the same time, the typhoon wind speed fluctuates greatly, which may result in the sudden shutdown of wind turbine unit and the sudden loss of a large amount of power supply. In addition, typhoon may cause wind blowing foreign bodies to the wire or branches on the line, causing high voltage transmission line tripping or failure. Therefore, it is necessary to quantitatively analyze the influence of typhoon, the extreme weather, on the output power of wind farm, so as to analyze the influence of typhoon on the reliability of the system from the point of view of the system. In this paper, Batts wind field model, Yanmeng wind field model and Shapiro wind field model are used to simulate typhoon wind speed of historical typhoon Wayne and Hagrid ratio, and typhoon wind field model with faster calculation speed and more suitable precision is selected. According to the analysis of this paper, it can be concluded that the model of Yanmeng wind field is more accurate and the speed of calculation is more suitable. The model can be used to simulate and reproduce the wind speed of typhoon. On this basis, according to the historical typhoon records in the data set of the best track of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, a real wind farm in Guangdong Province is taken as the simulation point. The typhoon parameter distribution model of the simulated point is fitted and different typhoon wind speed simulation sequences are formed. Through the analysis of the simulation point, it can be seen that about 65-70% of tropical cyclones may promote the increase of wind farm power generation, while 30-35% of typhoons may cause large-scale decoupling of wind turbines. It is suggested that wind farm controllers should take corresponding control strategies in time. Combined with the actual layout of the wind farm fan, the output power of each wind turbine under typhoon weather is solved by using the wind power curve. Finally, taking the reliability test system (RTS79) as an example, the short-term reliability of power system under typhoon condition is studied, which is the data support for dispatching and risk control of power system under typhoon weather. The results show that the short-term reliability level of the system will be greatly reduced due to typhoon weather. Even in some periods, the system reliability will be slightly improved by the increase of power generation from wind farms, but the fault rate of the system will increase exponentially due to typhoon. When the typhoon wind speed is above the magnitude 7 wind speed, the reliability of the system will decrease, but when the typhoon wind speed is below the magnitude 6 wind speed, the reliability level of the system will be slightly improved. In addition, under the same wind speed, with the increase of the installed capacity of wind power, the probability of load shedding of the system is lower. When the wind power permeability is 0.9032, the system load cutting probability is reduced by 0.4215. when the wind power permeability is 8.1284, the system load shedding probability is reduced by 1.6156.When the wind power permeability is 8.1284, the system shedding probability is reduced. That is, when the wind power permeability is between 0.9032% and 8.1284%, the greater the wind power permeability is, the higher the system reliability is. When the permeability of wind power reaches 9.032, the power flow of the system changes and the reliability of the system decreases when the access capacity of a single node exceeds the limit of transmission capacity of the transmission line. When the power generation reserve in the system is gradually reduced, the reliability level of the system is gradually reduced. When the inherent generating capacity of the system is insufficient, the system has a high probability of being maintained in the original system state, which makes the load cutting probability of the system approximate to 1.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM732

【参考文献】