基于AHP-GRAP的风电投资项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 00:48

本文选题：风电投资项目 + 风险评价　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济和社会的发展,能源需求持续增长,以石化能源为主的高碳经济出现了前所未有的危机,为此世界大多数国家都积极响应节能减排,而新能源产业正是实施节能减排调整产业结构过程中发展起来的新兴产业,因此不少国家的能源战略都鼓励开发新能源。风电投资在我国愈演愈烈,但是我们也必须清楚的认识到,我国现阶段的风电开发技术尚存在很大不足,尚处于风电发展的初级阶段,在开发建设运营过程中难免会遇到很多风险,这需要我们足够重视以保证风电项目的经济社会效益。基于此考虑,本文对风电项目投资进行详细的风险分析评价研究,以期对风电投资有所贡献。本文首先介绍了风电发展概况及风电项目投资的成本组成,论述了风电项目风险的概念及其特点,并详细评述了风电项目风险分析评价的相关理论及评价方法模型；在风险分析方面,首先在分析风力发电项目特点的基础上,对风电项目的各阶段进行风险因素识别,进而构建了比较完善的风险评价指标体系。本文在指标体系构建完成以后,综合传统风险评价方法的优缺点,根据风电项目风险因素的特点,文章整合多种风险评价方法,建立基于AHP-GRAP风险评价模型,并将其应用到某集团风电项目筛选风险评价中去,验证了该模型的实用性和可行性,并提出了相应的风险防范对策。最后总结了文章的研究成果创新之处,并指出了本文对风电项目风险评价研究的不足之处及后续研究的方向。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the energy demand continues to increase, and the high-carbon economy, which is dominated by fossil energy, is facing an unprecedented crisis. For this reason, most countries in the world are actively responding to energy conservation and emission reduction. The new energy industry is a new industry developed in the process of energy saving and emission reduction adjustment, so the energy strategy of many countries encourages the development of new energy. Wind power investment is becoming more and more intense in our country, but we must also clearly realize that there are still great shortcomings in wind power development technology in our country at the present stage, which is still in the initial stage of wind power development. In the process of development and construction, many risks will inevitably be encountered, which requires us to pay enough attention to ensure the economic and social benefits of wind power projects. Based on this consideration, this paper carries on the detailed risk analysis and evaluation to the wind power project investment, in order to contribute to the wind power investment. This paper first introduces the general situation of wind power development and the cost composition of wind power project investment, discusses the concept and characteristics of wind power project risk, and discusses in detail the relevant theory and evaluation method model of wind power project risk analysis and evaluation. In the aspect of risk analysis, firstly, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of wind power project, the risk factors of each stage of wind power project are identified, and then a relatively perfect risk evaluation index system is constructed. After the establishment of the index system, this paper synthesizes the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional risk assessment methods. According to the characteristics of the risk factors of wind power projects, this paper integrates various risk assessment methods and establishes the risk evaluation model based on AHP-GRAP. The feasibility and practicability of the model are verified by applying it to the screening risk evaluation of wind power projects in a certain group, and the corresponding risk prevention countermeasures are put forward. Finally, the paper summarizes the innovation of the research results, and points out the shortcomings of the research on wind power project risk evaluation and the direction of further research.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM614

【参考文献】