中国电力资源跨区域优化配置模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 20:05

本文选题：跨区域 + 电力产业　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：中国电力资源与负荷分布呈逆向分布,电力资源主要分布在西部、北部地区,而负荷则主要分布在东部地区,由此造成中国电力工业供电成本高昂,风电消纳困难,输电损耗严重,电力投资臃肿等窘况。对社会而言,造成一系列负外部性效应,其提高了社会用电成本,降低了能源利用效率,也加剧了大气污染程度。如何协调电力资源与负荷分布,实现电力资源的跨区域优化配置已经成为制约电力工业低碳化、可持续发展的关键问题。传统模式下电力资源的跨区域配置主要依赖一次能源运输的模式实现,远距离输电技术的发展在一定程度上缓解了传统能源运输通道的压力,丰富了电力资源跨区配置的形式。中国正致力建设跨区域输电通道,强化区域间电网架构,通过区域间的发电置换优化清洁能源的利用水平,缓解受端区域发电排污压力。在此背景下,围绕中国电力资源跨区域优化配置展开研究,重点研究了电力资源与负荷分布的协调状况,区域间电力资源配置要素的因果传递关系,区域间电源与电网协调规划,大规模风电跨区域消纳以及跨区域配置下发电企业利益分配、交易谈判等问题。电力资源与负荷分布协调的程度决定了电力资源跨区域配置的难度与深度。围绕中国电力负荷与煤炭、水能、风能三类能源的分布进行分析,借助基尼系数对负荷与能源分布的协调程度进行测算。分析结果表明煤炭、水能、风能的分布与负荷的协调程度都比较低,但水电与风电开发的倾向性在一定程度上缓解了一次能源与负荷分布的不协调。电力资源跨区域配置受到输电线路容量、输电价格、风电消纳水平等客观因素的制约,这些因素影响了能源产业链实物量与价值量的传递与反馈,有鉴于此,构建了区域间电力资源供需的系统动力学模型。通过因果关系图与流积图描绘系统中各变量之间因果传递关系,借助Vensim软件对区域间电力资源供需关系与价格的变化趋势进行仿真模拟,并以煤炭供应、经济增长率、风电利用小时以及输电容量等因素为敏感因子对电力资源的跨区域配置状况进行敏感性分析。电力资源跨区域配置受区域间电力规划的限制,反之,电力规划也在一定程度上左右了电力规划的走势。以规划年内发电综合成本最小为目标,考虑了电力平衡、发电备用、建设成本的约束条件,构建了多类型发电机组与跨区域输电网协调发展的优化模型,通过优化协调了电源与电网的建设容量与建设时点,既保证区域间电力资源配置的发展进程,提高能源综合利用效率,同时避免了因发电与电网建设不协调而导致投资的浪费。区域间输电通道的建设扩大了风电的消纳空间,在一定程度上降低了弃风水平。中短期而言,风电可与火电打捆通过输电专线输送至受端区域；以机组组合模型为基础,考虑风电调峰、输电功率波动等约束构建了风火联合外送的调度模型,对参与电力外送的风电与火电进行实时输出功率的协调优化。中长期而言,风电的消纳可以借鉴电力库模式；配合需求侧负荷对电价的响应机制以及储能系统对风电反负荷特性的调节能力,通过改变负荷与出力的时间分布以扩大风电的消纳水平。电力资源跨区域配置将影响电力市场参与者的市场份额,因此,理顺各市场参与者的利益关系是推进电力资源跨区域配置的基础。关于风电与火电联合外送中双方利润分配的问题,以双方对联盟效益的贡献度为依据,借助Shapley值法与核心法对双方进行利益分配,并以区域碳交易价差以及输电波动约束作为敏感因子,研究其对利益分配份额的影响。关于区域间火电机组发电权交易谈判的问题,基于Zeuthen决策以及贝叶斯学习提出一个双方逐步估算对方底价,逐步收敛双方报价差的谈判模型,尽可能使双方效用达到最大化。
[Abstract]:The electric power resources and load distribution in China are distributed in a reverse direction , and the electric power resources are mainly distributed in the western and northern areas , and the load is mainly distributed in the eastern region , which leads to a series of negative external effects , such as high power supply cost of the power industry , difficulty in wind power consumption , serious transmission loss , heavy power investment and the like .

The cross - region configuration of power resources in the traditional mode is mainly dependent on the mode of primary energy transportation . The development of long - distance transmission technology has relieved the pressure of traditional energy transportation channels to a certain extent and enriched the cross - region configuration of power resources .

The degree of coordination of power resource and load distribution determines the difficulty and depth of power resource cross - region configuration . The distribution of power load and coal , water energy and wind energy in China is analyzed , and the degree of coordination of load and energy distribution is calculated by means of Koniki coefficient . The results show that coal , water energy , wind energy distribution and load coordination degree are relatively low , but the tendency of hydropower and wind power development can alleviate the non - coordination of primary energy and load distribution to some extent .

The cross - region configuration of power resources is restricted by objective factors such as capacity of power transmission lines , transmission price and wind power consumption . These factors influence the transfer and feedback of the real quantity and value of energy industry chain . Based on Vensim software , the relationship between supply and demand of power resources and the trend of price change are simulated , and the sensitivity analysis is made on the cross - region configuration of power resources with the factors such as coal supply , economic growth rate , wind power utilization hour and transmission capacity .

On the contrary , electric power planning is limited by interregional power planning . On the other hand , electric power planning is the trend of electric power planning to a certain extent . The optimization model of coordinated development of multi - type generator sets and trans - regional power transmission networks is established by optimizing the constraint conditions of power balance , power generation reserve and construction cost . By optimizing the coordination of the development process of power supply and power distribution and the construction time point , the development process of the interregional power resource allocation is ensured , and the waste of investment is avoided because of the non - coordination of power generation and power grid .

In the short and short term , wind power can be delivered to the receiving area through the transmission line .
Based on the combination model of wind power and power fluctuation of power transmission , the dispatching model of air - fire combined external transmission is constructed , and the coordination and optimization of the real - time output power of wind power and thermal power outside the power supply are optimized .
The response mechanism of the demand side load to the electricity price and the energy storage system ' s ability to adjust the wind power anti - load characteristic are matched to enlarge the wind power consumption level by changing the time distribution of the load and the output force .

The cross - regional arrangement of power resources will affect the market share of power market participants . Therefore , it is the basis of promoting the cross - regional arrangement of power resources . As a basis of the contribution of both parties to the benefits of the alliance , the paper studies the influence of the two parties on the share of benefit distribution . On the basis of Zeuthen ' s decision - making and Bayesian learning , we propose a negotiation model for the two parties to gradually estimate each other ' s base price and gradually converge the price difference between the two parties , so as to maximize the effectiveness of the two parties .
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61

【参考文献】