电动汽车充换电设施项目风险评价与规避策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 05:47

本文选题：电动汽车 + 充换电设施　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在能源危机和环境恶化压力下,全球已进入发展低碳经济的新时代。发展电动汽车作为解决能源和环境问题的重要手段,得到各国政府和企业的高度关注。以新能源汽车为标志的新一轮技术革命,为我国的汽车产业转型升级,真正实现自主创新和技术追赶提供了历史性的机遇。电动汽车充换电设施建设是大力发展电动汽车的基础,只有建立完善的电动汽车充换电基础设施,才能大规模普及推广电动汽车的应用。目前,电动汽车行业正处于起步阶段,其发展存在诸多不确定因素,电动汽车充换电设施建设项目存在风险。它不完全等同于电网公司原来的变电站项目,存在一定的不确定因素,而这些不确定因素可能导致一些不可避免的风险,进而对充换电设施建设项目的实施以及未来的运营带来不利的影响。因此有必要对充换电设施项目展开相关研究,以求在进行项目建设的过程中合理规划、科学布局、规避风险。本文首先介绍了项目风险识别、评价及规避策略的基本理论,将项目风险管理理论引入电动汽车充换电设施项目管理中。采用德尔菲法识别了电动汽车充换电设施项目面临的技术因素、市场因素、政策因素、充换电设施建设及运营服务因素及资金因素等风险因素。在此基础上,确定各指标权重,并使用模糊综合评价法对风险进行了评价,构建电动汽车换电站建设项目综合评价指标体系；运用层次分析法(AHP法)计算各级综合评价指标权重,分析不同因子对总体风险的影响程度,在多级模糊综合评价模型(FCE)下定量研究当前换电站建设项目的不确定因素情况；根据风险因素分析结果提出基于政策风险、市场风险、技术风险、电动汽车充换电设施建设及运营服务风险和资金风险等不同风险因素的风险规避措施。论文对电动汽车充换电设施建设项目面临的不确定风险因素进行了研究,对其面临的不确定风险因素进行了风险识别及风险评价,提出了规避风险的应对策略,希望能为今后电动汽车充换电设施项目建设提供一定的参考。
[Abstract]:Under the pressure of energy crisis and environmental deterioration, the world has entered a new era of developing low-carbon economy. The development of electric vehicles as an important means to solve energy and environmental problems has been highly concerned by governments and enterprises. The new round of technological revolution, marked by new energy vehicles, provides a historic opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry and the realization of independent innovation and technological catch-up. The construction of electric vehicle charging and changing facilities is the foundation of developing electric vehicle. Only by establishing perfect electric vehicle charging and changing infrastructure can the application of electric vehicle be popularized on a large scale. At present, the electric vehicle industry is in its initial stage, and there are many uncertain factors in its development. It is not exactly equivalent to the original substation project of the power grid company, and there are certain uncertainties that may lead to some inevitable risks. Furthermore, it will bring adverse influence to the construction project of charging and switching facilities and the future operation. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out relevant research on charging and switching facilities in order to reasonably plan, scientifically distribute and avoid risks in the process of project construction. Firstly, this paper introduces the basic theory of project risk identification, evaluation and evading strategy. This paper introduces the theory of project risk management into the project management of electric vehicle charging and switching facilities. The Delphi method is used to identify the technical factors, market factors, policy factors, construction and operation service factors and fund factors of electric vehicle charging and switching facilities. On this basis, the weight of each index is determined, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of electric vehicle power station construction project is constructed. Using AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) to calculate the weight of comprehensive evaluation indexes at all levels, to analyze the influence of different factors on the overall risk, and to quantitatively study the uncertain factors of the current power station construction projects under the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCE). According to the results of risk factor analysis, the risk aversion measures based on different risk factors, such as policy risk, market risk, technical risk, electric vehicle charging and switching facility construction, operation service risk and capital risk, are put forward. This paper studies the uncertain risk factors faced by the electric vehicle charging and switching facilities construction project, identifies and evaluates the uncertain risk factors it faces, and puts forward the countermeasures to avoid the risks. Hope to provide some reference for the future electric vehicle charging and changing facilities construction.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U469.72;TM910.6

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