基于等可信容量的含风光储微电网电源优化规划研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 18:21

本文选题：风光储联合发电系统 + 可信容量　；参考：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：对可持续发展的诉求使得世界范围内对可再生新能源利用的研究不断深入,随着生产技术进步使其发电成本越来越低,越来越多可再生能源发电设备得以接入电力系统。可再生能源发电装置既可以通过集中式接入电网,也可以分布式电源形式接入电网。由于大量分布式电源直接通过电力电子设备接入电网,会对电能质量产生影响,而分布式电源以微电网形式接入电网可以有效避免这一问题,提高可再生能源的利用率,节能降损,在电网中应用越来越广泛。由于新能源机组的出力随着自然资源的波动而变化,传统电源规划方法难以计及这种不确定性,因此迫切需要找到一种有效的间歇性电源的选型、定容和评估方法。因此,本文研究了微电网中多种不同类型分布式电源联合发电时的效益评估方法,以及典型微电网的电源优化配置模型,在此基础上提出了基于等可信容量的电源优化配置方法,并提出一种能够计及时空特征的电源规划评价指标体系对规划方案进行评价。为了对评估间歇性电源的发电效益,本文研究了不同类型微电源的出力特性并建立了模型,给出单种微电源的可信容量定义及计算方法。建立了包含风电、光伏发电的联合出力概率模型,考虑储能装置的运行特性,提出一种风光储联合发电系统的可信容量计算方法。针对计及风电机组、光伏发电机组2种间歇性电源的随机生产模拟,采用基于序贯蒙特卡洛的评估框架进行了仿真。在所提储能控制策略的基础上,评估了储能容量配比、风光装机容量配比对联合发电系统可信容量的影响以及风光联合发电时的互补效益,并进行了验证。为研究间歇性电源接入后电源规划和传统方法的不同,把电源规划分为投资决策和生产模拟两部分加以分析。针对两种典型的微电网利用形式,海岛型微电网和城区并网型微电网提出了的不同投资决策需求,分别建立了电源优化的目标函数和约束条件。为研究微电网的生产模拟过程,分析了多种不同类型分布式电源接入后的微电网运行时序特性,在考虑时序特性的基础上,研究了微电网的随机生产模拟方法。根据所提投资决策目标和生产模拟方法,建立了基于时间序列预测数据的微电网电源优化模型,并选用自适应粒子群算法进行求解。在所提电源规划模型中,采用基于概率密度的蒙特卡洛模拟方法对微电网的生产模拟过程进行改进,把确定性模型转化为随机-确定性耦合模型,并综合计及自然资源的随机波动和常规机组的随机停运影响。在此基础上结合对风光储联合发电系统可信容量的研究,本文提出一种基于等可信容量的含风光储的微电网电源规划方法,按照满足电力平衡的需求确定所需风光储发电系统的整体可信容量以及常规机组容量,通过蒙特卡罗仿真计算得到等可信容量所需的风光储机组组合,根据风光储容量优化配置模型,从上述组合集合中选出使全生命周期总投资成本最小的风、光、储容量配置。为了研究微电网的电源规划在时空特征上的不确定性,以及时空特性对微电网综合评价及最优决策的影响,本文研究了一套能计及动态时空特征的微电网电源规划评价方法,涵盖了经济性指标、可靠性指标、效益指标和环保指标。首先在经济性指标中加入时变参数,建立随机过程模型以描述微电网电源规划项目的动态时空特性,包括未来投资机组成本和燃料价格随时间的波动特性,然后提出多种间歇性电源联合发电的互补效益指标及能源价格风险率指标,用于评价既定电源规划方案由于未来时空特征的不确定性而带来的可能的风险损失。最后,本文分析了不同层次各因素之间的相互关系,引入层次分析法明确各指标的权重,对计及动态时空特征独立微电网的不同电源规划方案做出综合评价。最后,论文对所作的工作进行了总结,并对本课题的发展趋势进行了展望。
[Abstract]:The demand for sustainable development makes a worldwide research on the use of renewable energy. With the progress of production technology, the cost of generating electricity is becoming lower and lower, and more and more renewable energy generation equipment can be connected to the power system. Power supply is connected to the power grid. Because a large number of distributed power sources directly connect to the power grid through power electronic equipment, the power quality will have an impact on the power quality, and the distribution of distributed power in the form of micro grid can effectively avoid this problem, improve the utilization of renewable energy, save energy and reduce the loss, and use more and more widely in the power grid.
As the force of the new energy unit changes with the fluctuation of natural resources, the traditional power planning method is difficult to take into account of this uncertainty, so it is urgent to find an effective method of selection, capacity and evaluation of intermittent power supply. Therefore, this paper studies the benefits of combined power generation of various types of distributed power sources in the microgrid. The evaluation method, as well as the model of the optimal power configuration of the typical microgrid, has been put forward on the basis of the equal trusted capacity, and an evaluation index system of power planning evaluation which can take into account the temporal and spatial characteristics is proposed to evaluate the planning scheme.
In order to evaluate the power generation efficiency of intermittent power supply, this paper studies the output characteristics of different types of micro power supply and establishes a model, gives the definition and calculation method of the credible capacity of single micropower supply, and establishes a joint output probability model including wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Considering the running characteristics of the energy storage device, a kind of wind and solar energy storage union is proposed. According to the random production simulation of 2 intermittent power sources for wind turbines and photovoltaic generating sets, the simulation is carried out based on the sequential Monte Carlo evaluation framework. On the basis of the proposed energy storage control strategy, the ratio of energy storage capacity and the ratio of wind and wind capacity to the joint power generation system are evaluated. The influence of trusted capacity and the complementary benefits of wind and solar power generation are verified.
In order to study the difference between the power supply planning and the traditional methods of the intermittent power supply, the power planning is divided into two parts: investment decision and production simulation. In view of the two typical micro grid utilization forms, the different investment decision-making requirements of the island type microgrid and the urban grid type micro grid are put forward, and the aim of the power supply optimization is set up respectively. In order to study the production simulation process of microgrid, the time series characteristics of microgrid operation after various types of distributed power supply are analyzed. Based on the time series characteristics, the stochastic production simulation method of microgrid is studied. Based on the proposed investment decision target and production simulation method, the time series based on the proposed investment decision and the production simulation method are established. The power supply optimization model of the microgrid is derived from the sequence prediction data, and adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm is adopted to solve it.
In the proposed power planning model, the Monte Carlo simulation method based on probability density is used to improve the production simulation process of the microgrid, and the deterministic model is converted into a stochastic deterministic coupling model, and the random fluctuations of natural resources and the random outage of conventional units are taken into account. In the study of the trusted capacity of the power generation system, this paper proposes a power planning method based on the equitable capacity for wind and solar energy storage. According to the demand of the power balance, the whole credible capacity of the required solar energy storage system and the capacity of the conventional unit are determined. The wind required by the Mont card Luo Fangzhen calculation is obtained. The combination of light storage units, according to the optimal configuration model of wind and storage capacity, selects the wind, light, and storage capacity of the whole life cycle to minimize the total cost of the total life cycle.
In order to study the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal characteristics of the power planning of the microgrid and the influence of the spatio-temporal characteristics on the comprehensive evaluation and the optimal decision of the microgrid, this paper studies a set of evaluation methods for the power planning of the microgrid, which includes the economic index, the reliability index, the benefit index and the environmental protection index. The time-varying parameter is added to the economic index, and a stochastic process model is established to describe the dynamic temporal and spatial characteristics of the power planning project of the microgrid, including the cost of the future investment unit and the fluctuation of the fuel price with time. Then, the complementary efficiency index and the energy price risk rate index of the combined power generation of intermittent power supply are put forward, and the evaluation of the energy price risk rate is used for evaluation. The possible risk loss caused by uncertainty of the future spatio-temporal characteristics of the established power supply planning scheme. Finally, this paper analyzes the relationship between different levels and factors, and introduces the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the different power planning schemes for the dynamic space-time characteristic independent microgrid.
Finally, the work is summarized and the development trend of this subject is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM715

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