风电功率预测系统设计研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 20:52

本文选题：风电场 + 风功率预测　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于风电的波动性、间歇性以及反调峰特性,大规模风电接入电网会对电力供需平衡、电力系统的安全,以及电能质量带来很大影响。为解决大规模风电并网给电网调度运行造成的困难,风功率预测系统的建设显得尤为重要。本文对风功率预测技术理论进行了归纳,开展了风功率预测系统的设计研究。风功率预测通常分为超短期功率预测和短期功率预测,其中超短期功率预测主要用于实时调度,解决电网调频问题；短期功率预测主要用于合理安排常规机组发电计划,解决电网调峰问题。超短期风功率预测大多采用统计方法和学习方法相结合的预测模型；短期风功率预测则大多采用物理方法和学习方法相结合的预测模型。风功率预测系统主要由风电场侧风功率预测子站、数据通信链路以及部署在网／省级调度侧的风功率预测主站系统三部分组成。调度侧风功率预测主站系统包括硬件和软件两个部分,其主要作用在于进行区域风功率预测,并对各个风电场风功率预测的准确性进行考核评价。风电场风功率预测子站由功率预测系统和测风塔两部分设备组成,用于单个风电场的功率预测,并向调度侧主站系统提供实时测风数据。主站和子站间的数据通信大多采用电力调度数据网。
[Abstract]:Due to the fluctuation of wind power, intermittent and anti-peaking characteristics, large-scale wind power access to the grid will have a great impact on the balance of power supply and demand, the security of power system, and the quality of power. In order to solve the difficulties caused by large-scale wind power grid connection, the construction of wind power forecasting system is particularly important. In this paper, the theory of wind power prediction technology is summarized, and the design of wind power prediction system is studied. Wind power prediction is usually divided into ultra-short term power prediction and short term power prediction, in which ultra short term power prediction is mainly used for real-time dispatching to solve the power network frequency modulation problem, and short term power prediction is mainly used for rational arrangement of generation plan for conventional generating units. To solve the problem of peak regulation in power grid. The prediction model of ultra-short-term wind power is mostly based on the combination of statistical method and learning method, while the short-term wind power prediction is mostly based on the combination of physical method and learning method. The wind power prediction system is mainly composed of wind farm wind power prediction sub-station data communication link and wind power prediction master station system deployed on the network / provincial dispatching side. The main station system of dispatching crosswind power prediction consists of hardware and software. The main function of the system is to predict the regional wind power and evaluate the accuracy of wind power prediction in each wind farm. Wind power prediction sub-station of wind farm is composed of power prediction system and wind tower. It is used to predict the power of a single wind farm and provides real-time wind measurement data to the dispatching side main station system. The data communication between master station and sub-station mostly adopts power dispatching data network.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM614

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