基于聚类的复杂地形下风电场输出功率概率分布建模

发布时间：2018-07-08 20:59

本文选题：风电场 + 复杂地形　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球化石燃料储备的下降,全球气候变暖的破坏性影响,人口不断增加造成能源需求不断上升,使得研究和发展低碳能源显得尤为必要。得益于风能的环境效益,风电技术的进步及政府的激励措施,风能已成为全球再生能源行业中增长最快的替代能源。然而,由于风电机组的功率输出随着风速的随机性而波动,大规模的风电场并网使得风电功率波动对系统稳定性的影响更为可观,甚至在不适当的情况下可能导致电力系统崩溃。本文主要针对风电场的输出功率特性,首先分析介绍了含风电场发输电系统可靠性评估的相关基础理论,在研究两台风电机组在不同海拔高度下部分遮挡模型的基础上,建立了复杂地形下部分遮挡尾流效应计算模型,该模型适用于各种复杂地形下不同风电机组间的尾流影响,同样适用于平坦地形。其次,在考虑风电机组的功率输出特性、复杂尾流效应和风电机组停运的基础上,突出考虑了连接电缆停运对可靠性建模的影响,建立了计及连接电缆故障的风电场可靠性模型。运用威布尔分布模拟风速,对风电机组和连接电缆故障进行序贯蒙特卡罗抽样仿真,利用MATLAB编写相应程序进行算例分析,结果表明复杂尾流效应模型能够相对准确地描述风电机组间尾流影响,计及连接电缆故障的风电场可靠性模型提高了原有风电场可靠性模型的精确性。最后,通过分析风电机组输出功率的概率性,结合复杂地形部分遮挡尾流效应模型和计及连接电缆故障的风电场可靠性模型,建立了基于聚类的风电场输出功率概率分布模型。该模型将风能的随机性和风电场输出功率的概率性相结合,利用聚类思想,将风电场建模等效成为一个多状态常规机组。以IEEE-RTS79系统为例,结果表明该模型可有效模拟风电场的输出功率以及用于含风电场的电力系统可靠性评估,并能保证其精度。
[Abstract]:The decline of global fossil fuel reserves, the devastating effects of global warming, and the growing population have led to rising energy demand, making research and development of low-carbon energy particularly necessary. Thanks to the environmental benefits of wind power, advances in wind power technology and government incentives, wind energy has become the fastest growing alternative energy source in the global renewable energy industry. However, because the power output of wind turbine fluctuates with the randomness of wind speed, the large-scale wind farm connected to the grid makes the fluctuation of wind power have a more significant impact on the stability of the system. Even improper conditions may lead to the collapse of the power system. This paper mainly aims at the output power characteristics of wind farm. Firstly, the basic theory of reliability evaluation of power transmission system with wind farm is analyzed and introduced. Based on the study of partial occlusion model of two wind turbines at different altitude, A calculation model of partially occluded wake effect under complex terrain is established. The model is applicable to the wake effect of different wind turbines under various complex terrain as well as to the flat terrain. Secondly, on the basis of considering the power output characteristics of wind turbine, complex wake effect and wind turbine outage, the influence of connection cable outage on reliability modeling is considered. The reliability model of wind farm considering cable faults is established. By using Weibull distribution to simulate wind speed, sequential Monte Carlo sampling simulation of wind turbine and connected cable faults is carried out, and a corresponding program is compiled by MATLAB for example analysis. The results show that the complex wake effect model can accurately describe the wake effect between wind turbines, and the reliability model of wind farm considering the cable faults improves the accuracy of the original wind farm reliability model. Finally, by analyzing the probability of output power of wind turbine, combining with the model of partial wake blocking effect of complex terrain and the reliability model of wind farm considering the fault of connecting cable, the probabilistic distribution model of output power of wind farm based on clustering is established. The model combines the randomness of wind energy with the probability of output power of wind farm, and makes use of the clustering idea to model the wind farm as a multi-state conventional unit. Taking IEEE-RTS79 system as an example, the results show that the model can effectively simulate the output power of wind farm and be used to evaluate the reliability of power system with wind farm, and ensure its accuracy.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM614

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