电力和天然气补贴对经济及产业结构的影响——基于CGE建模的分析

发布时间：2018-08-06 09:12

【摘要】：在考虑外部成本的情况下,首先利用价差法估计了中国2007年电力和天然气的补贴规模,然后在构建的中国经济的CGE模型基础上,定量分析了电力和天然气补贴对宏观经济、产业结构及居民收入福利的影响。结果表明:取消电力和天然气补贴对真实GDP、进出口、就业等宏观经济变量以及部门产出产生了一定的负面影响,其中采掘业、重化工业等电力或天然气消耗较大产业产出下降十分明显;受此影响,居民和企业收入出现下降,由于补贴支出减少,政府收入降低幅度相对较小,但却可以明显降低整个经济的单位GDP电力和天然气消耗,提高资源利用效率,同时使得产业结构合理化和高级化程度增强,产业结构得到优化升级。
[Abstract]:Considering the external cost, this paper estimates the scale of electricity and natural gas subsidies in China in 2007 by using the spread method, and then, on the basis of the CGE model of China's economy, quantitatively analyzes the effects of electricity and natural gas subsidies on the macro economy. The influence of industrial structure and residents' income and welfare. The results show that the elimination of electricity and natural gas subsidies has had a negative impact on real macroeconomic variables such as GDP, import and export, employment and sectoral output, including extractive industries. The decline in output in industries that consume more electricity or natural gas, such as heavy and chemical industries, is very evident; as a result of this, the incomes of residents and enterprises have declined. As a result of the reduction in subsidy spending, the decline in government revenues has been relatively small. However, it can obviously reduce the consumption of electricity and natural gas per unit GDP of the whole economy, improve the efficiency of resource utilization, at the same time, the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure can be enhanced, and the industrial structure will be optimized and upgraded.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073059;71173083) 教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(09YJA790078;09YJA790079)
【分类号】：F426.22;F426.61;F121.3

【参考文献】