时空环境相依的电网故障模型及在电网可靠性评估中的应用

发布时间：2018-08-19 19:54

【摘要】：传统的电网可靠性评估采用固定不变的元件年均故障率模型,难以适应电力系统短期风险评估需求。电网故障与灾害性天气具有较强的时间相关性,气象灾害具有明显的季节性特征,因此电网风险也具有时间波动性。在描述电网元件故障参数时,需要从原来的一维横向连续时间下的年均值模型,拓展到考虑历史同期(纵向)时间和导致故障的因素,特别是外部气象环境因素,以便更准确地描述时间及环境相依的电网故障率。在传统年均值模型的基础上建立了不同时间尺度、不同气象灾害类型下的元件故障模型,并依据此模型进行电网可靠性评估。按照该方法对西南某省级电网近3年内500 k V输电线路的故障数据进行了分析,对该电网的可靠性进行了评估。计算结果表明,不同时间段电网的可靠性指标与年均值相比具有较大差异,验证了时空环境相依的可靠性评估的必要性。
[Abstract]:The traditional power network reliability assessment adopts the fixed component annual failure rate model, which is difficult to meet the short-term risk assessment needs of power system. There is a strong temporal correlation between power grid faults and severe weather, and meteorological disasters have obvious seasonal characteristics, so the power grid risk also has time fluctuation. In describing the fault parameters of power network components, it is necessary to extend the original annual mean model under the one-dimensional transverse continuous time to take into account the historical period (longitudinal) time and the factors leading to the fault, especially the external meteorological environment factors. In order to more accurately describe the time and environment dependent power grid failure rate. Based on the traditional annual mean model, the component fault models with different time scales and different types of meteorological disasters are established, and the reliability of power network is evaluated according to this model. According to this method, the fault data of 500kV transmission line in a provincial power network in Southwest China are analyzed in the last three years, and the reliability of the network is evaluated. The calculation results show that the reliability index of power network in different time periods is different from that of the annual average, which verifies the necessity of reliability evaluation of spatio-temporal environment dependence.
【作者单位】：输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学);云南电网有限责任公司昆明供电局;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(50977094) 重庆市自然科学基金(CSTC 2011BB6047)~~
【分类号】：TM732

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