考虑城镇化发展农网多类负荷的协整分析及预测
发布时间：2018-08-25 08:28
【摘要】：城镇化率是衡量一个国家社会经济发展水平的重要指标之一。近年我国经济不断发展,社会不断进步,许多农村、乡、镇逐渐向城市转型。城镇化发展将逐渐加大能源消耗,尤以电力能源消耗增速最快。农网设备原有较为陈旧,线路多为较早前铺设,快速的城镇化建设,势必造成负荷增多、网损增大、线路过载等问题。深入研究城镇化发展水平与农村电力负荷关系具有深远意义。论文阐述了研究意义,介绍了城镇化发展现状、负荷特性研究现状及协整理论的应用领域。采用人口比重指标法计算城镇化水平,介绍了常用城镇化水平预测模型,详细说明了当前农村电网发展情况及农村电网主要负荷特性指标。城镇化水平与农村负荷均是随时间变化的时间序列,若未分析序列平稳性直接采用ARMA (Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model自回归滑动平均)模型,易形成伪回归。因此,通过ADF (augmented Dickey-Fuller Test)单位根检验法对城镇化水平以及农网工业用电、居民生活用电、工业生产用电、企事业单位用电负荷进行序列平稳性检验,检验结果说明,这些数据序列均为非平稳时间序列。采用1阶差分后将此类非平稳序列平稳化,从而满足协整模型应用条件。将城镇化率与电力负荷纳入协整模型,通过检验协整模型的残差序列平稳性,验证了模型的正确性。对城镇化水平和农网负荷年总用电量及年最大负荷进行格兰杰因果(Granger)检验分析,得出其具有统计学的因果关系,即城镇化水平为年总用电量及年最大负荷的Granger原因。应用计量学模型对城镇化水平进行预测,根据其与负荷关系的协整模型预测2040年各类负荷年用电量情况及年最大负荷。本文以湖南某农村数据为例进行仿真运算。结果表明城镇化水平与农村电网负荷二者确有因果关系。根据城镇化的发展程度,分析各类负荷水平,为农村电网改造提供依据。
[Abstract]:Urbanization rate is one of the important indicators to measure the level of social and economic development of a country. In recent years, China's economic development, social progress, many rural areas, townships and towns gradually transformed to the city. The development of urbanization will gradually increase energy consumption, especially the fastest growth of electricity energy consumption. The rural power network equipment is old, the lines are laid earlier, the rapid urbanization construction, will inevitably cause the load increase, the network loss increases, the line overload and so on. It is of great significance to study the relationship between the development level of urbanization and rural electric power load. This paper expounds the significance of the research, introduces the present situation of urbanization, the research status of load characteristics and the application field of cointegration theory. In this paper, the urbanization level is calculated by the method of population specific gravity index, and the commonly used forecasting model of urbanization level is introduced. The development situation of rural power grid and the main load characteristic index of rural power network are described in detail. The urbanization level and the rural load are time series with time change. If the smoothness of the sequence is not analyzed, the ARMA (Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model autoregressive moving average) model can be used directly to form pseudo regression. Therefore, the ADF (augmented Dickey-Fuller Test unit root test method is used to test the level of urbanization and the power consumption of rural network industry, residents' daily life, industrial production, enterprises and institutions, and the results show that, These data sequences are all nonstationary time series. The first order difference is used to stabilize the nonstationary sequence, which satisfies the application condition of the cointegration model. The urbanization rate and power load are incorporated into the cointegration model, and the correctness of the model is verified by checking the stability of the residual error sequence of the cointegration model. Granger causality (Granger) test was used to analyze the total electricity consumption and the annual maximum load of the urbanization level and the rural network load, and the statistical causality was obtained, that is, the urbanization level was the Granger cause of the total annual electricity consumption and the annual maximum load. The metrology model is used to predict the urbanization level, and the cointegration model based on the relationship between load and load is used to predict the annual electricity consumption and the maximum annual load of various loads in 2040. In this paper, a rural data in Hunan is taken as an example for simulation. The results show that there is a causal relationship between urbanization level and rural power grid load. According to the development of urbanization, all kinds of load levels are analyzed to provide the basis for rural power grid transformation.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM727.1
本文编号：2202328
[Abstract]:Urbanization rate is one of the important indicators to measure the level of social and economic development of a country. In recent years, China's economic development, social progress, many rural areas, townships and towns gradually transformed to the city. The development of urbanization will gradually increase energy consumption, especially the fastest growth of electricity energy consumption. The rural power network equipment is old, the lines are laid earlier, the rapid urbanization construction, will inevitably cause the load increase, the network loss increases, the line overload and so on. It is of great significance to study the relationship between the development level of urbanization and rural electric power load. This paper expounds the significance of the research, introduces the present situation of urbanization, the research status of load characteristics and the application field of cointegration theory. In this paper, the urbanization level is calculated by the method of population specific gravity index, and the commonly used forecasting model of urbanization level is introduced. The development situation of rural power grid and the main load characteristic index of rural power network are described in detail. The urbanization level and the rural load are time series with time change. If the smoothness of the sequence is not analyzed, the ARMA (Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model autoregressive moving average) model can be used directly to form pseudo regression. Therefore, the ADF (augmented Dickey-Fuller Test unit root test method is used to test the level of urbanization and the power consumption of rural network industry, residents' daily life, industrial production, enterprises and institutions, and the results show that, These data sequences are all nonstationary time series. The first order difference is used to stabilize the nonstationary sequence, which satisfies the application condition of the cointegration model. The urbanization rate and power load are incorporated into the cointegration model, and the correctness of the model is verified by checking the stability of the residual error sequence of the cointegration model. Granger causality (Granger) test was used to analyze the total electricity consumption and the annual maximum load of the urbanization level and the rural network load, and the statistical causality was obtained, that is, the urbanization level was the Granger cause of the total annual electricity consumption and the annual maximum load. The metrology model is used to predict the urbanization level, and the cointegration model based on the relationship between load and load is used to predict the annual electricity consumption and the maximum annual load of various loads in 2040. In this paper, a rural data in Hunan is taken as an example for simulation. The results show that there is a causal relationship between urbanization level and rural power grid load. According to the development of urbanization, all kinds of load levels are analyzed to provide the basis for rural power grid transformation.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM727.1
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 罗国亮,谢传胜;农村电力与农村经济增长关系初探[J];华北电力大学学报(社会科学版);2003年04期
，本文编号：2202328
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